A long time ago, I made some charts using data from the 1996, 2000, and 2004 elections to predict possible trends in how states vote. I did this by removing the overall swing from each state's results and looked out how votes in each individual state changed independent of national trends. I then extrapolated these numbers to find what the results might be in 2008. One of the things I found was that many of the states that were very close in the 2004 election were trending towards becoming more Democratic, but nearly all of the states that were trending towards Republican were already Republican. Based on these trends I found that if the final popular vote in 2008 was exactly the same as in 2004, the Democrats would gain 10 electoral votes, from Nevada and New Mexico. Not enough to win, but give the Democrats just a 1% swing, they would win Iowa, Ohio, and Colorado and thus the presidency. To win, Republicans would have to keep the national swing towards the Democrats to less than 1%.
I had forgotten about all this for several months, but I became interested again after North Carolina became a swing state. I didn't remember anything in my model saying that North Carolina could go Democrat even in the best scenario. I used the current numbers (as of Oct. 12) on Fivethirtyeight.com to find the predicted swing for the 2008 election, 7.9%. Putting this number into my model gives McCain just a 3% lead in North Carolina. While this is still a comfortable lead for McCain, it's much closer than Bush's 12.4% margin of victory in 2004. I found a lot of other random things in my model when comparing it to the current polls, like Obama is doing incredibly well in Alaska despite Sarah Palin, but I'll leave all that until after the election.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Now I have to eat kangaroos
BBC News
Whenever I go to a restaurant that serves buffalo, I have to get a buffalo burger. My reason for this is that in the regions were buffalo live, they are better for the environment than cattle. So by choosing buffalo over beef, I'm, hopefully, creating demand to shift ranches from cattle to buffalo production.
Now it seems that I should add kangaroos as a food I should always get if a restaurant serves it. Kangaroos produce much less methane than cattle so they're better for environment in terms of climate change. I would also imagine that they're better also for the local environment just like buffalo are. One problem though, I've never been to a restaurant that had kangaroo meat on the menu.
Whenever I go to a restaurant that serves buffalo, I have to get a buffalo burger. My reason for this is that in the regions were buffalo live, they are better for the environment than cattle. So by choosing buffalo over beef, I'm, hopefully, creating demand to shift ranches from cattle to buffalo production.
Now it seems that I should add kangaroos as a food I should always get if a restaurant serves it. Kangaroos produce much less methane than cattle so they're better for environment in terms of climate change. I would also imagine that they're better also for the local environment just like buffalo are. One problem though, I've never been to a restaurant that had kangaroo meat on the menu.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Jury Verdict
BBC News
After criticism that Eurovision voting is biased in favor of Eastern Europe countries, they have decided to reintroduce juries. Next year's Eurovision winner will be decided by a mixture of televoting of juries how exactly it will work though has not be decided.
Actually, they used a jury during the 2008 Eurovision semi-finals. Nine finalists were selected by televoting and the tenth was picked from the remaining contestants by a jury.
I know way too much about Eurovision.
After criticism that Eurovision voting is biased in favor of Eastern Europe countries, they have decided to reintroduce juries. Next year's Eurovision winner will be decided by a mixture of televoting of juries how exactly it will work though has not be decided.
Actually, they used a jury during the 2008 Eurovision semi-finals. Nine finalists were selected by televoting and the tenth was picked from the remaining contestants by a jury.
I know way too much about Eurovision.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Republican Failure Week
Coming off the high of the announcement of McCain's VP pick, it seems that Republicans have a tough week ahead of them. Most important is Hurricane Gustav, which has thankfully been handled very well. Unfortunately, it took the near destruction of New Orleans three years ago to get this kind of response. Gustav is also causing problems for the Republican Convention. Most first day activities were canceled and speeches by Bush, Cheney, and Schwarzenegger have been canceled. There's also some speculation that McCain will give his acceptance speech in New Orleans instead of Minneapolis. This seems to be a huge blow to loyal party members that have already made plans to be in Minneapolis.
Also, a rumor that I never expected to gain traction has led to an interesting conclusion. Basically there was a rumor that Palin's most recent son was actually the son of her teenage daughter due to the fact that seven months into the pregnancy, Palin did not appear pregnant. Well it turns out that it couldn't be her daughter's child because her daughter is currently pregnant.
A big deal has been made that this shouldn't be an issue, but I think it's important because it highlights both the hypocrisy and failure of Republican policies. Palin is an advocate of abstinence-only education, but the fact that her own daughter couldn't even hold to that gives little hope of it working as a national policy. It was also brought up on fivethirtyeight.com that it took a rather absurd rumor to bring this to light. Now the Republican Party is trying to spin this as showing what a supportive mother Palin is, but if the rumor had never surfaced, were they just hoping that no one would find out?
In another bit of irony, Focus on the Family had asked its members to pray for torrential rain to begin during Obama's acceptance speech as a sign that God doesn't want him to be president. Looks like God decided to rain on someone else's parade. Of course, Focus on the Family will say this isn't a sign that God doesn't want McCain to be president, God is just testing him. Isn't great when you can have your cake and eat it too?
Also, a rumor that I never expected to gain traction has led to an interesting conclusion. Basically there was a rumor that Palin's most recent son was actually the son of her teenage daughter due to the fact that seven months into the pregnancy, Palin did not appear pregnant. Well it turns out that it couldn't be her daughter's child because her daughter is currently pregnant.
A big deal has been made that this shouldn't be an issue, but I think it's important because it highlights both the hypocrisy and failure of Republican policies. Palin is an advocate of abstinence-only education, but the fact that her own daughter couldn't even hold to that gives little hope of it working as a national policy. It was also brought up on fivethirtyeight.com that it took a rather absurd rumor to bring this to light. Now the Republican Party is trying to spin this as showing what a supportive mother Palin is, but if the rumor had never surfaced, were they just hoping that no one would find out?
In another bit of irony, Focus on the Family had asked its members to pray for torrential rain to begin during Obama's acceptance speech as a sign that God doesn't want him to be president. Looks like God decided to rain on someone else's parade. Of course, Focus on the Family will say this isn't a sign that God doesn't want McCain to be president, God is just testing him. Isn't great when you can have your cake and eat it too?
Monday, July 28, 2008
Radiosynthesis
Cosmos Magazine
Using a robot to explore the inside of the reactor at Chernobyl, scientist came across a black fungus that was able to live inside the abandoned facility where the radiation level is 500 times the background level. Many fungi are pretty resistant to radiation, so that's not the extraordinary part. Scientist think that the fungus is actually converting radioactive energy into biological energy it can use to grow. The reason the fungus is black is due to a large amount of melanin which scientists believe is being used in a similar way as chlorophyll is used in plants to convert solar energy into biological energy.
Using a robot to explore the inside of the reactor at Chernobyl, scientist came across a black fungus that was able to live inside the abandoned facility where the radiation level is 500 times the background level. Many fungi are pretty resistant to radiation, so that's not the extraordinary part. Scientist think that the fungus is actually converting radioactive energy into biological energy it can use to grow. The reason the fungus is black is due to a large amount of melanin which scientists believe is being used in a similar way as chlorophyll is used in plants to convert solar energy into biological energy.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Terrible Terrible Ideas
BBC
With the 2010 World Cup coming to South Africa, politicians are trying to come up with ways to encourage soccer fans to come and enjoy themselves. Most of the issues are pretty evident, reduce the horrendous crime rate, clean up the cities, improve the infrastructure, etc. However, this idea seems a bit out there. After seeing the "success" of the German sex industry during the 2006 World Cup, some politicians think it's a good idea to legalize prostitution during the 2010 World Cup.
Some people might balk at this idea because actually the German brothels did relatively poorly during the 2006 World Cup. Most articles I can find on the subject from during and after the 2006 World Cup, show only lukewarm business. Most people going to World Cup games aren't going for the prostitutes or come in a group and can't just go to a brothel when they please.
Of course, what I hope most people think about is HIV. It is believed that nearly 11% of South Africans have HIV. I imagine that for people looking to engage in sexual activities, Sub-Saharan Africa is pretty low on their places to go. Assuming that South Africa puts in safeguards to make sure that the prostitutes don't have HIV, where are they going to find them? I'm guessing prostitutes could be brought down from other countries, but hopefully not from the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. This then begs the question, which prostitutes, assuming they have choice, are willing to risk working in a country with such a high prevalence of HIV?
It really just seems like a bad deal all around. Soccer fans are not going to flood brothels. Most potential customers will likely be scared off by the high HIV prevalence. Most potential prostitutes would also be scared off for the same reason. So in the end no one would win with legalized prostitution in South Africa.
With the 2010 World Cup coming to South Africa, politicians are trying to come up with ways to encourage soccer fans to come and enjoy themselves. Most of the issues are pretty evident, reduce the horrendous crime rate, clean up the cities, improve the infrastructure, etc. However, this idea seems a bit out there. After seeing the "success" of the German sex industry during the 2006 World Cup, some politicians think it's a good idea to legalize prostitution during the 2010 World Cup.
Some people might balk at this idea because actually the German brothels did relatively poorly during the 2006 World Cup. Most articles I can find on the subject from during and after the 2006 World Cup, show only lukewarm business. Most people going to World Cup games aren't going for the prostitutes or come in a group and can't just go to a brothel when they please.
Of course, what I hope most people think about is HIV. It is believed that nearly 11% of South Africans have HIV. I imagine that for people looking to engage in sexual activities, Sub-Saharan Africa is pretty low on their places to go. Assuming that South Africa puts in safeguards to make sure that the prostitutes don't have HIV, where are they going to find them? I'm guessing prostitutes could be brought down from other countries, but hopefully not from the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. This then begs the question, which prostitutes, assuming they have choice, are willing to risk working in a country with such a high prevalence of HIV?
It really just seems like a bad deal all around. Soccer fans are not going to flood brothels. Most potential customers will likely be scared off by the high HIV prevalence. Most potential prostitutes would also be scared off for the same reason. So in the end no one would win with legalized prostitution in South Africa.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Metropolis Extended
The Local
Several years ago, I was back home from NCSSM. Flipping through the channels I found out that the film "Metropolis" would be showing on TCM late at night. I had heard much about film and it was something I really wanted to see, so here was my chance. I was completely enthralled by the movie. One of the most memorable things about the movie was the blank spots. Much of the film had been lost and all that was left was a description of what had taken place in the lost scenes. This air of mystery has kept me interested in the film ever since.
Recently a museum in Argentina has discovered that the copy of "Metropolis" in its archives was longer than the current version available. It's highly likely that this is an original copy, maintaining all the unedited scenes. I can't wait for it to be fully restored.
Several years ago, I was back home from NCSSM. Flipping through the channels I found out that the film "Metropolis" would be showing on TCM late at night. I had heard much about film and it was something I really wanted to see, so here was my chance. I was completely enthralled by the movie. One of the most memorable things about the movie was the blank spots. Much of the film had been lost and all that was left was a description of what had taken place in the lost scenes. This air of mystery has kept me interested in the film ever since.
Recently a museum in Argentina has discovered that the copy of "Metropolis" in its archives was longer than the current version available. It's highly likely that this is an original copy, maintaining all the unedited scenes. I can't wait for it to be fully restored.
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