Top 500
The ranking of the 500 fastest supercomputers was released a few days ago. It was a fairly average list, with over all FLOPS increasing by 31% over 6 months, compared to the average 36%. There were a little over 160 new computers on the list.
The biggest news is that the top computer is now Titan, which can calculate 17.6 PetaFLOPS. Unfortunately, the speed for standard computers is not measured in FLOPS, which makes it difficult to conceptualize what this means. Looking up estimates for my computer, a laptop from 2008, I got anywhere between 30 and 160 GigaFLOPS. So it would take between 110,000 and 600,000 laptops just like mine to match Titan. That said, my laptop would have been one of the top 10 fastest supercomputers in the early 1990's.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Thursday, November 08, 2012
James Bond Music Again
Three years ago, I made a post about James Bond theme songs. It was fun putting it together and hearing all those songs that don't get played much anymore.
I was thinking of revisiting the list after Skyfall's release, but somebody at the Atlantic had the same idea and made their own Graded, Ranked, and Non-Negotiable Guide to Every 'Bond' Song. There are definite difference in our lists. For one, Dunaway seems to like Tom Jones' "Thunderball" much more than I did and he's less enthusiastic about Chris Cornell's "You Know My Name". The list also taught me something. What I had thought was the theme of "On Her Majesty's Secret Service" was actually a different song. Louis Armstrong actually sang the main theme. Although much better than the other song, Armstrong's song falls into the same category as Carly Simon's song. Good, but doesn't seem like a James Bond song. As for Adele's "Skyfall", it's a classy little number, not the greatest, but up there with "The World is not Enough".
I was thinking of revisiting the list after Skyfall's release, but somebody at the Atlantic had the same idea and made their own Graded, Ranked, and Non-Negotiable Guide to Every 'Bond' Song. There are definite difference in our lists. For one, Dunaway seems to like Tom Jones' "Thunderball" much more than I did and he's less enthusiastic about Chris Cornell's "You Know My Name". The list also taught me something. What I had thought was the theme of "On Her Majesty's Secret Service" was actually a different song. Louis Armstrong actually sang the main theme. Although much better than the other song, Armstrong's song falls into the same category as Carly Simon's song. Good, but doesn't seem like a James Bond song. As for Adele's "Skyfall", it's a classy little number, not the greatest, but up there with "The World is not Enough".
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Unused Roads
I don't remember how I first became aware of this, but several years ago while doing research on the recession, I came across figures for miles driven on US highways. What was fascinating about them was that the figures perfectly corresponded to the dates set as the beginning and end of the recession. Miles driven peaked in November of 2007, fell for the following 18 months, and started to recover in June of 2009. I figured that the number would make its way back up and that would be the end of the story. But it wasn't. I checked again some months later, and the number had actually declined. As it sits now, the number has been improving since November 2011, but it's still far below it's 2007 high.
As it stands, total miles driven in the US are currently the same as in 2004. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the decline may have begun earlier. Up until 2002, monthly changes in miles driven closely matched a linear trend line, increasing around 5 billion miles every month. However, since November 2002, every month has been below what a linear trend line would predict. Even after switching to a polynomial trend line, the predicted and the actual results begin to diverge after July 2004. If the linear trend from 2002 had been maintained, as it had been for 15 years, miles driven would be 3.4 trillion instead of 2.9 trillion.
There is one more thing to consider, the US population has increased by 11 million since the recession began. So whereas total miles driven has more or less flat-lined since 2009, per capita miles driven continues to decline.
While total miles driven is the same as 8 years ago, miles per person is the same as 14 years ago. Similar to total miles driven, miles per person used to follow a linear trend line, but it began to diverge in December 2000.
The big question is, what does this mean? The sharp decline after 2007 is easily explained as a result of the recession while the continued decline could reflect the weakness of the recovery. However, slowing trends could be seen as far back as 2000. The lack of recovery in highway might not reflect the recession so much as a change in driving behavior. There are studies showing that car ownership is declining especially among young people. A further question is, will the current trend continue or will a confluence of improving economic conditions and population increase drive the number back up?
As it stands, total miles driven in the US are currently the same as in 2004. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the decline may have begun earlier. Up until 2002, monthly changes in miles driven closely matched a linear trend line, increasing around 5 billion miles every month. However, since November 2002, every month has been below what a linear trend line would predict. Even after switching to a polynomial trend line, the predicted and the actual results begin to diverge after July 2004. If the linear trend from 2002 had been maintained, as it had been for 15 years, miles driven would be 3.4 trillion instead of 2.9 trillion.
There is one more thing to consider, the US population has increased by 11 million since the recession began. So whereas total miles driven has more or less flat-lined since 2009, per capita miles driven continues to decline.
While total miles driven is the same as 8 years ago, miles per person is the same as 14 years ago. Similar to total miles driven, miles per person used to follow a linear trend line, but it began to diverge in December 2000.
The big question is, what does this mean? The sharp decline after 2007 is easily explained as a result of the recession while the continued decline could reflect the weakness of the recovery. However, slowing trends could be seen as far back as 2000. The lack of recovery in highway might not reflect the recession so much as a change in driving behavior. There are studies showing that car ownership is declining especially among young people. A further question is, will the current trend continue or will a confluence of improving economic conditions and population increase drive the number back up?
Election Spending
Total campaign spending per vote in federal elections (in 1998 dollars).
2010: $30.15
2008: $30.69
2006: $28.76
2004: $29.03
2002: $24.71
2000: $27.50
1998: $22.14
2010: $30.15
2008: $30.69
2006: $28.76
2004: $29.03
2002: $24.71
2000: $27.50
1998: $22.14
Friday, August 24, 2012
Mexican Border
I recently read a review of Robert Kaplan's book "The Revenge of Geography" wherein he writes about how geography shapes society. One part of interest to me, but won't expand on in this post is the importance of Ukraine to Russia in whether or not Russia takes a more European or Asian orientation. What I want to talk about here is actually a quote from another book about the Mexican border. The reviewer critiques Kaplan on his views about the Mexican border and quotes another author, George Friedman who wrote "[Mexico's] real, social border will be hundreds of miles north of the legal border.” I thought this was an interesting concept. In terms of geography, the Mexican border is pretty poorly defined and was established at a time when the region was sparsely populated. So here lies a poorly defined border seperating two countries with a massive income gap. This of course leads to massive immigration. Because of the level of immigration and the proximity of Mexico, Mexicans are not being assimilated in the same way immigrants in the past were. They have such a large presence that they are about to maintain their culture and language and current technology allows them to communicate and visit with family in Mexico regularly, so they are never alienated from their history. This means that the Southwest is increasingly looking like its southern neighbors, so while the Mexican border may be south of Texas, Mexican society extends farther north.
In looking at this issue, I wanted to know just how far north Hispanic culture extends today. To do this, I looked at Census data on the Hispanic population just north of the Mexican border. I then used this data to map out a region of the US where the population is 50% Hispanic.
There are counties north of this region which are over 50% Hispanic, but I wanted to create as clean a border as possible without exclaves. Likewise, the region includes counties with very low Hispanic populations, but were surrounded by counties with high Hispanic populations. I left one American exclave though, San Diego and Orange County, because it has a large population, but a relative small Hispanic population.
Overall, this region represents 36 million people, 18 million of whom are Hispanic. New Mexico is clearly the most Hispanic state, although it is sparsely populated so the majority of this region lives in California. Over a quarter of the population is in Los Angeles County alone.
What is striking about this region is how uneven it is. It extends as far north as the Bay Area in California and parts of Colorado and Kansas, but only incorporates the border counties of Arizona and just barely reaches Austin and Houston. Arizona has a relatively low Hispanic population despite being flanked by large Hispanic populations in California and New Mexico. The Hispanic population isn't moving uniformly northward but is following its own patterns, possibly adhering to more sensible boundaries than the arbitrary ones currently in place.
In looking at this issue, I wanted to know just how far north Hispanic culture extends today. To do this, I looked at Census data on the Hispanic population just north of the Mexican border. I then used this data to map out a region of the US where the population is 50% Hispanic.
There are counties north of this region which are over 50% Hispanic, but I wanted to create as clean a border as possible without exclaves. Likewise, the region includes counties with very low Hispanic populations, but were surrounded by counties with high Hispanic populations. I left one American exclave though, San Diego and Orange County, because it has a large population, but a relative small Hispanic population.
Overall, this region represents 36 million people, 18 million of whom are Hispanic. New Mexico is clearly the most Hispanic state, although it is sparsely populated so the majority of this region lives in California. Over a quarter of the population is in Los Angeles County alone.
What is striking about this region is how uneven it is. It extends as far north as the Bay Area in California and parts of Colorado and Kansas, but only incorporates the border counties of Arizona and just barely reaches Austin and Houston. Arizona has a relatively low Hispanic population despite being flanked by large Hispanic populations in California and New Mexico. The Hispanic population isn't moving uniformly northward but is following its own patterns, possibly adhering to more sensible boundaries than the arbitrary ones currently in place.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Majority-Minority 2011
It's been awhile since I've looked at figures for the majority-minority states. In my last post on the subject, new data from the 2010 census revealed that minority populations had been under counted, and that the estimated year for when most states would become majority-minority states moved forward considerably. Well, I finally got around to including 2011 in my estimates. Not much has changed from 2010, the next ten states likely to become majority-minority states, remain the same, although the years change a little.
Nevada - 2014
Maryland - 2017
Georgia - 2019
Florida - 2022
New Jersey - 2025
Arizona - 2025
New York - 2029
Louisiana - 2030 (est. excludes 2005)
Mississippi - 2030
Delaware - 2031
Only three states, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, showed a proportional increase in the white population between 2010 and 2011, but in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, it wasn't large enough to reverse the trend, and in Hawaii, the white population is already so small, there is no significant trend. DC is the only region that clearly shows a reversal as the city becomes more gentrified. According to current trends, DC will be majority white by 2029. However, I'm skeptical this trend will continue as the pace of change decreased greatly between 2010 and 2011.
Nevada - 2014
Maryland - 2017
Georgia - 2019
Florida - 2022
New Jersey - 2025
Arizona - 2025
New York - 2029
Louisiana - 2030 (est. excludes 2005)
Mississippi - 2030
Delaware - 2031
Only three states, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, showed a proportional increase in the white population between 2010 and 2011, but in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, it wasn't large enough to reverse the trend, and in Hawaii, the white population is already so small, there is no significant trend. DC is the only region that clearly shows a reversal as the city becomes more gentrified. According to current trends, DC will be majority white by 2029. However, I'm skeptical this trend will continue as the pace of change decreased greatly between 2010 and 2011.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Divergent Staaten
While on the subject of economic convergence and divergence, I thought it would be interesting to look at Germany. Since reunification, Germany has been marked by the stark economic differences between eastern and western Germany. During their time as separate states, West Germany greatly out paced East Germany in economic growth.
Since reunification though, the German government has poured tons of resources into the eastern Staaten, hoping to bring about a convergence. So far success has been limited. At first, they thought they could pay for reunification through the privatization of East German factories, but they turned out to be in such bad shape they were essentially given away. When replacing the East German currency, the government gave a highly favorable exchange rate, in an effort to increase wealth. However, this ended up inflating labor costs, which led to persistent unemployment. A massive investment in construction proved fruitless as the population continued to decline, leaving many disused buildings.
However, the government learned much from these early efforts, and with the recent growth of the Germany economy, one would hope that some convergence has occurred. Unfortunately, I can't find an comparison of incomes over a long enough period of years to determine if there has been a convergence in that area. An article from Spiegel says that in 20 years, household incomes in the east went from 35% to 53% of that in the west.
I have more complete data on unemployment though.
Instead of there being a more immediate convergence, there was a divergence in unemployment rates up until 2001, and the unemployment rate didn't peak until 2005. However, since then, the drop in unemployment in the east has outpaced the west.
Another chart I find interesting is comparing the number of unemployed people for each job vacancy.
After a massive spike in 2004, the number of job vacancies in eastern Germany greatly increased. So it appears, at least in terms of employment figures, eastern Germany didn't begin to converge with the west until around 2005, when Germany's economy started to improve.
While doing this research, I found one interesting article that now I can't find, wherein it concluded that attempts to compare the economies of the west and the east were flawed as the east is more rural. While the largest city in Germany, by far, is Berlin, all other cities in the top 10 are in western Germany. When compared to just rural areas in the west, the level of convergence is much higher. It's just that recent economic growth in Germany has mostly taken place in the cities, which the east is lacking.
Since reunification though, the German government has poured tons of resources into the eastern Staaten, hoping to bring about a convergence. So far success has been limited. At first, they thought they could pay for reunification through the privatization of East German factories, but they turned out to be in such bad shape they were essentially given away. When replacing the East German currency, the government gave a highly favorable exchange rate, in an effort to increase wealth. However, this ended up inflating labor costs, which led to persistent unemployment. A massive investment in construction proved fruitless as the population continued to decline, leaving many disused buildings.
However, the government learned much from these early efforts, and with the recent growth of the Germany economy, one would hope that some convergence has occurred. Unfortunately, I can't find an comparison of incomes over a long enough period of years to determine if there has been a convergence in that area. An article from Spiegel says that in 20 years, household incomes in the east went from 35% to 53% of that in the west.
I have more complete data on unemployment though.
Instead of there being a more immediate convergence, there was a divergence in unemployment rates up until 2001, and the unemployment rate didn't peak until 2005. However, since then, the drop in unemployment in the east has outpaced the west.
Another chart I find interesting is comparing the number of unemployed people for each job vacancy.
After a massive spike in 2004, the number of job vacancies in eastern Germany greatly increased. So it appears, at least in terms of employment figures, eastern Germany didn't begin to converge with the west until around 2005, when Germany's economy started to improve.
While doing this research, I found one interesting article that now I can't find, wherein it concluded that attempts to compare the economies of the west and the east were flawed as the east is more rural. While the largest city in Germany, by far, is Berlin, all other cities in the top 10 are in western Germany. When compared to just rural areas in the west, the level of convergence is much higher. It's just that recent economic growth in Germany has mostly taken place in the cities, which the east is lacking.
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