So I never got around to updating my readers on how my prediction held up. Well, I currently predicted that the department that Bayrou originally won in and one other would shift in favor of Royal. Along with this, four other departments in which Sarkozy was originally the top candidate, switched to Royal.
Not heeding Le Pen's call to boycott, voter turnout went up during the second round, from 83.77% to 83.97%, although, the number of spoilt or null votes tripled, so the number of votes actually counted dropped.
In the end, in appears that Bayrou voters split 50.64/49.36 in favor of Royal. So the 50/50 split prediction seems to have been fairly accurate. The slight boost to Royal didn't do her much good though, she still lost.
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