NASCAR week 15

Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Hamlin 100%
Gordon 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Johnson 100%
Kurt Busch 96%
Stewart 95%
Kenseth 81%
Harvick 69%
Edwards 64%
Biffle 63%
Martin 60%
Newman 45%
Burton 43%
Bowyer 39%
Montoya 31%
Kahne 31%
Reutimann 24%
Logano 17%
Earnhardt 16%
Truex 11%

With race winner Denny Hamlin already at 100%, the top gainer this week was Kurt Busch who finished third (88% to 96%). While Kahne finished second, he is very much an underdog now and it's going to take a lot of good finishes to get him into the Chase. The biggest loser was Newman (55% to 45%), who has been teetering on the edge of making the Chase since the beginning. He cannot afford bad finishes.

Currently only 25 drivers have a chance of making the Chase. Menard is last with a 0.3% chance. Vickers still has a 0.4% chance if he's ever able to return.

I just noticed that Edwards' and Logano's chances haven't change in four races. I wonder why.