NASCAR Chase Begins

No real surprises from the Richmond race. We now have our 12 Chase drivers, so let's take a look at who are the top contenders for winning the Sprint Cup. Their chances are based on their current points and their record from last year's Chase.

Johnson 47%
Gordon 12%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 7%
Biffle 4%
Bowyer 4%
Kyle Busch 4%
Stewart 3%
Burton 3%
Kenseth 2%
Harvick 2%
Edwards 1%

Johnson averaged 162 points a race last year, compared to everyone else that averaged between 146 and 112. This makes him far and away the most likely to win the Sprint Cup. There's still a 53% chance that someone else could win, it's just very uncertain as to who can really challenge Johnson. At the beginning of the Chase, everyone's points are reset to 5000, with an extra 10 points for each race won earlier in the season. The extra points are known as the "Kenseth rule" as they were created in order to stop a repeat of the time Kenseth managed to win the Cup with only one win all season. This makes Hamlin the current points leader, having won 6 races so far. These extra points have little effect in terms of their chances of winning right now, but could prove essential towards the end of the season.

Given some the drivers tenuous chances, it's very likely that if Johnson does well Loudon, drivers like Edwards and Harvick will see their chances evaporate. However, if Johnson does poorly, it could throw everything wide open.

Looking back at the pre-Chase races, I wanted to point out some notable events.

Best Season
Harvick, started the season with only a 21% chance of making the Chase, lower than Casey Mears, only to become the points leader for the majority of the season. He's chances of making the Chase increased every single week.

Worst Season
Martin, started the season with a 55% chance of making the Chase, the highest for someone that eventually didn't make it. By the Charlotte race, he had a 69% chance, but he fortunes quickly reversed, leaving him 15th in points.

Best Reversal
Bowyer, after Watkins Glen he had only a 30% chance, but only two races later, he had an 82% chance.

Most Tenacious
Earnhardt, never had a more than 28% chance, but managed to hold some hope of making the Chase for almost the entire season.

Most Secure
Stewart, his chances never fell below 85%.