Saturday, December 22, 2007

I'm Losing By Saving

So I just completed my first month of meticulously tracking all of my expenses after my first paycheck. So my first paycheck was just under 2,000,000 won, or just under $2,200. Over the last the month I spent a little over $500, which gives me a savings rate of over 75%. This will probably be the highest rate of any month though, as I had rather low utility bills this month, since they covered part of the time no one lived here.

Anyway, my expenses worked out as so:
62% - Food
15% - Transportation
7% - Gifts
7% - Entertainment
5% - Utilities
4% - Other

I managed to keep track of all my money except for 1,923 won. This is actually very odd as since there are no coins smaller than 10 won, I have no idea how to account for the missing 3 wons.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Democracy Takes Two Steps Forward and One Step Back

This past weekend, there were three rather important elections.

First, the Hong Kong Legislative Council Election

Pro-Democracy candidate, Anson Chan, won with a 14% margin. This comes immediately after District Council elections that saw large victories for Pro-Beijing candidates.

Second, the Venezuelan Constitutional referendum

Chavez's proposed amendments were narrowly defeated. His proposals would have paved the way for highly centralized socialist government, granting him a great deal of authority with few checks. Even if you think the proposals were not so bad, the fact that they were even defeated shows that democracy still works in Venezuela.

Third, the Russian Legislative Election

Putin's United Russia Party increased it's share of the vote from 38% to 64% amidst claims of vote-rigging. Of course, the other choices weren't much better. Of the three other "major" parties one is the Communist Party, one is an ultra-nationalist party, and the other more or less supports Putin.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Currency Updates

A few weeks ago, I made some predictions as to when various currencies would hit certain benchmarks against the US dollar (as a monthly average). I now have the November monthly averages, so here are my updated predictions.

May. 2008: 1 Euro > $1.50 US (2 months sooner)
Jul. 2008: 6 Swedish Kroner > $1 US (3 months sooner)
Sep. 2008: 900 Korean Won > $1 US (no change)
Sep. 2008: $1 Aussie > $1 US (1 month sooner)
Dec. 2008: 7 Chinese Yuan > $1 US (1 month sooner)
Apr. 2009: 30 Indian Rupees > $1 US (no change)
Dec. 2009: $1 Canadian > $1.50 US (1 month sooner)

New
Sep. 2009: 1 Swiss Franc > $1 US
Sep. 2009: 100 Japanese Yen > $1 US
Dec. 2009: 5 Swedish Kroner > $1 US

Monday, November 19, 2007

Rising Oil Prices or Sinking US Dollar?

There's been a lot of news lately about rising oil prices. However, these prices are always listed in US Dollars. Giving the sinking value of the dollar, I decide to see how much this is affecting the rise in oil prices. Using monthly averages, between January and October of this year, the price of oil against the US Dollar rose 36%, rising from $59.95 to $81.45 per barrel. I then set out to find the fastest appreciating major currency, which turned out to be the Canadian Dollar. In the same time period, the Canadian Dollar rose 21% against the US Dollar. This means that in Canadian Dollars, the price of oil has risen 13%, or 70.49 to 79.43 Canadian Dollars. So while the price of a barrel in the US has gone up $21.50, the price in Canada has only gone up $8.94.

While searching for the fastest appreciating currency, I discovered that the Korean Won is one of the weaker currencies, having only risen 2% against the US Dollar since January. The changes in its value just seem more sever when it's going from 930 to 900 won to a dollar. So it seems I won't be doing as well here as I had hoped.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

I'm a Korean Millionaire!

I just got my first paycheck for 1,843,150 Won (after taxes and so forth). I also earned a rather questionable sum of 70,000 Won by practicing with a guy that had an English job interview coming up. So I've decided to try keeping track of how much money I make and spend here, to kind of get an idea of my living expenses. So expenses yet, but I'm starting now with 1,913,150 Won. At the current exchange rate that's $2,090.19. It's currently 915.30 Won to the US Dollar. Hopefully the US Dollar will drop in value, giving me a few extra bucks when I get home.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Top 500 is Awesome!

Top 500

Another six months, another post about the Top 500 list. The current list was pretty exciting. While BlueGene remains the top computer, its speed was greatly increased from 280.6 GFLOPS to 478.2 GFLOPS. For the last two years there as been little increase in the speed of the top 10 computers, however, this update saw a bunch of new entrants, pushing the former 2nd place computer down to 7th. This six months saw total FLOPS of the top 500 increase by 41%, the best result in two years.

Other tidbits, BlueGene now does as many FLOPS as the entire top 500 list from June 2003. The current 500th computer does as many FLOPS as the entire top 500 list from June 1996. The current results do not change my estimate that the average top 10 computer will do 1 PentaFLOPS by June 2011.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

The US Dollar is Sinking!

BBC

I've been thinking of making this post once I gained internet access in my apartment. So I found it kind of funny that the first thing I saw when I opened Mozilla was this BBC article. This article is like a little conglomeration of my interests. It has currency issues, feminism, and South Korea.

Anyway, the main intention of this post was to detail how much the US Dollar has changed. I'm doing this by looking at when various world currencies passed certain benchmarks (based on monthly average value) against the dollar.

Nov. 2002: 1 Euro > $1 US
May. 2003: 8 Swedish Kroner > $1 US
Nov. 2004: 1100 Korean Won > $1 US
Jan. 2006: 1000 Korean Won > $1 US
Jul. 2006: 8 Chinese Yuan > $1 US
May. 2007: 2 Brazilian Real > $1 US
Jul. 2007: 1 British Pound > $2 US
Oct. 2007: 6.5 Swedish Kroner > $1 US
Oct. 2007: $1 Canadian > $1 US
Oct. 2007: 40 Indian Rupees > $1 US

My estimates for future values (monthly averages):
Jul. 2008: 1 Euro > $1.50 US
Sep. 2008: 900 Korean Won > $1 US
Oct. 2008: $1 Aussie > $1 US
Oct. 2008: 6 Swedish Kroner > $1 US
Jan. 2009: 7 Chinese Yuan > $1 US
Apr. 2009: 30 Indian Rupees > $1 US
Jan. 2010: $1 Canadian > $1.50 US

These dates might seem far off, but the decline of the US Dollar has accelerated the last few months, so these rates might come much sooner than expected.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Malawi Plays a First-World Game

The Globe and Mail

Malawi has long been dependent on foreign aid to feed it's people, however, a new policy of subsidizing farms has created a crop surplus. Foreign donors have long stipulated that Malawi not subsidize its farms because it would create instabilities. While it's true that subsidies distort the market and create inefficient resource allocations, the market is already distorted by the fact that most First-World countries subsidize agriculture in their countries. This has led to deflated market prices that poor African farmers cannot compete with.

These subsidies are costly, $62 million, but that's almost half what the government was spending on food aid. Also, the cost of the subsidies is offset by a massive food surplus creating a new source of revenue for Malawi.

The best solution for everyone is for First-World countries to stop subsidizing their own farms, but until then I hope more poor countries follow Malawi's example.

Friday, September 21, 2007

2010 Redistricting

I've been playing around with US population numbers to predict the changes in the number of congressional districts states will have after the 2010 Census. Here's what I predict:

Gain 4: Texas
Gain 2: Arizona
Gain 1: California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Utah
Lose 1: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania
Lose 2: Ohio

This led to me wondering, what if every election year, they redistributed the Electoral College votes to better reflect each states population. During the 2000 election, the Electoral College votes were still based on the 1990 Census. If redistricting had taken place before the election, Bush would have received 7 more electoral votes. Based on 2004 population numbers, Bush would have gained 2.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

It's a Meteor

BBC

I was talking to Tom the other day about meteorites. The Earth gets hit by small meteorites everyday, most of which burn up in the atmosphere. I was curious as to how often we got hit by meteorites that at least caused some localized damage. While, this article doesn't answer that question, it shows that it does happen.

Saturday, September 08, 2007

We're Going to be Underwater

Flood Maps

Some guy set-up a Google Map showing which areas of the world would flood if sea levels rose 1 to 14 meters. It's quite interesting to look over.

Some things I noticed:
Seattle becomes an island at +9 meters
Around +12 meters, Yuba City becomes a coastal city
Nearly everything south of Baton Rogue is underwater at +11 meters
Parts of Richmond flood at just +1 meter
At +14 meters the Netherlands is left with three incongruous parts and two large islands
Uppsala starts to flood at +8 meters
Shanghai becomes an island at +4 meters
Bangladesh is screwed

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Monetary Unions

Wikipedia

The Euro is often touted as something unique in history, but its not the monetary union that makes it unique. Since 1945, two sizable monetary unions have existed in Africa. Even in Europe, such unions have not been unique. In 1865, the Latin Monetary Union was established. Since, at that time, most countries used gold and silver coinage, the union simply standardized the amount of gold and silver that could be used to make coins to make them interchangeable. This union included all of southern Europe and Venezuela. Even the US used the same standard, but never joined the union. The union eventually collapsed because the rising value of metals and WWI.

Following is a ranking of the all current monetary unions (official and de facto) in order of how many countries are involved. I am not including territories on this list.
Euro - 18
CFA Franc BCEAO - 8
US dollar - 7
CFA Franc BEAC - 6
East Caribbean dollar - 6
South African rand - 4
Australian dollar - 4
New Zealand dollar - 3
Swiss franc - 2

This means that among the 194 widely recognized countries, there are only 145 currencies. With the continued expansion of the Euro and other monetary unions, the number of currencies will drop to 119 in the near future.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Presidential Decoy

Washington Post

While doing research for my previous post, I found this article about how 3rd party candidates influence our votes that I thought was interesting.

Was Perot A Spoiler Candidate?

Since I have little better to do, I've been trying to figure out if Perot actually cost Bush Sr. the 1992 election. So first things first, if Perot had dropped out of the election, how many of his voters would have to vote for Bush to give him the win? Doing some quick math, I found that 66% of Perot voters would have to vote for Bush to allow him to win. So now I have to find if more or less than 66% of Perot voters preferred Bush to Clinton.

To determine this next step, I compared the 1992 and 1996 election. Assuming that there were no changes in preferences, what affect did the decline in votes for Perot have? To get the 1996 result, 67% of Perot voters would have to have voted for Clinton. Closer inspection of this number showed some flaws though. In several states, Dole received fewer votes than Bush despite the 33% of former Perot votes he should have gained, meaning that Clinton gained former Bush voters. Also, such a split would have given Clinton an implausible lead in the 1992 election if Perot had dropped out.

My next idea was to do some complicated and questionable mathematics to determine the split in Perot's lost votes that best fit the 1996 election result. This showed that only 47% of former Perot voters chose Clinton in 1996. Still, that's enough in favor for Clinton to have kept Bush from winning in 1992. However, this split only explains the 1996 election. Perot voters may have split differently in 1992.

Trying to find other studies of the 1992 election, I found two things: First, polls asking for Perot voters second preference generally showed them evenly split between Bush and Clinton. Second, polls before the election generally showed large changes in support for Clinton and Perot, but Bush support remained fairly constant.

So my conclusion, it is unlikely that Perot acted as a spoiler candidate. He probably cost Bush a few states, but not enough to change the result.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Mp3 Sparks Can Read My Mind

Mp3 Sparks

So I've been upset ever since AllofMp3 went offline. The University of Richmond signed up with Ruckus, but it was a poor substitute. Thanks once again to the BBC though, I found Mp3 Sparks. During the time AllofMp3 was offline, the owners set up another site, Mp3 Sparks, which is basically the same thing. I was planning to wait for AllofMp3 to go back online, but the first time I visited Mp3 Sparks, they had an ad for the New Pornographers album, the second time I visited, they had an ad for the new Josh Ritter album. Both are albums I really wanted, so I went ahead and signed up. As I was downloading them, I saw an ad for the new Rilo Kiley album that I didn't even know was out yet.

So what makes Mp3 Sparks and AllofMp3 so good?
1) Songs only cost a few cents
2) Price is based on the length of the album, no more overpaying for short albums
3) What to save money? You can download lower quality song files
4) You can download songs in a wide variety of formats

What was terrible about Ruckus?
1) Entire secure apparently based on the idea that everyone had Windows Media 12
2) I was able to find a way to get around the security, because I don't Windows Media 12, in only a few minutes. Good for me, but bad for them
3) Only students are supposed to be able to get the free tracks, but all that's needed to get a student account is a .edu e-mail account. So even though I'm no longer a student, I can still use it and even sign up a friend as I have two .edu accounts
4) Couldn't download tracks that had an apostrophe in the title
5) To download tracks, I had to download some terrible, ad-filled program that could not be fully minimized
6) Even if I downloaded the whole album, the tracks would be listed alphabetically and not how they appeared on the album. Not a problem for most albums, but matters for a few
7) If the download was interrupted, the track had to be deleted and redownloaded

Kind of makes me wonder how a business of questionable legality can perform much better, both for itself and its customers, than a fully legal one.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Mountains of Olives

I Like Olives

My sister has a blog now. Actually she's had it for awhile and I completely forgot about it until she told me to read her post about Trivial Pursuit Pop-Tarts. So yes, if you read this blog, you should read it to. Unfortunately, I think the only person that reads this is my sister, so I doubt I'll be increasing traffic to her blog.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Good News Everyone!

TV Squad

It appears the final word has been spoken on the new Futurama. It will be released November 27th on DVD as well as appearing on Comedy Central. So will it be a movie or a new season? Apparently both. Four DVD movies of Futurama will be released which will be cut up into 16 episodes to be shown on Comedy Central.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Supercomputers and Such

Top 500

So another 6 months has passed and the list of the top 500 fastest computers has been updated. BlueGene has now held the top spot longer than any other computer, 2 and half years. I found a way to see the total FLOPS of all 500 computers, which has been telling. On average, the total FLOPS the top 500 can do increases about 35-36% every 6 months. The top computer of any given year typically can do the same number of FLOPS as the total of all 500 from about 4 years earlier.

This past 6 months, there seemed to be a shift towards mass-building of supercomputers instead of building just one big one as there wasn't much change at the top of the list but over half the list are new entries. Many of these were groups of computers all running at the same number of FLOPS. It may help that the price of running supercomputers has dropped dramatically making it more cost-effective to more institutions to build supercomputers. According to answers.com, the price of performing at one GFLOPS has dropped from $30,000.00 in 1997 to $0.42. A typical PC processor can now perform 5 to 10 GFLOPS.

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Gay Marriage in Sweden

The Local

The Moderate Party, the leading party in the current conservative government, has decided to support gay marriage in Sweden. There have been few calls for gay marriage because same-sex couples already have many of the same rights and protections of heterosexual couples. The reason for this willingness to change the status quo may be the fact that socialist coalition has been leading in recent polls by as much as 15%. This leaves the Christian Democrats the only party in the Riksdag to oppose gay marriage.

Friday, June 08, 2007

Zombies!

Fido

One of the most creative movie premises I've seen in awhile. I don't know if that's a good thing.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Name Trends Update

Social Security Online

Apparently I had been misinformed back in January that they would update the popular baby names list in February as apparently it wasn't updated until May. Anyway, here's how my predictions held up.

Alexander didn't make it into the top 10, maintaining its position at 12th.

Joseph was instead replaced by William.

Sophia made it to the top 10, but Mia only made it to 13th, still a strong sign in growing popularity as it was 17th in 2005.

Ashley fell out of the top 10, Samantha fell to 10th.

Ava continued its strong rise, going from 9th to 5th.

Joseph and Micheal did not switch positions.

So I'd say I got about 50/50 on that, maybe slightly less because I didn't think William would return to the top 10.

Sunday, June 03, 2007

On the Subject of Elections

Elections Ireland

Ireland uses one of the most accurate, but mind-numbingly tedious methods of counting votes, Single transferable vote. Basically, everyone ranks the candidates and if one's favorite gets eliminated for having the fewest votes that round, then the vote goes to the second favorite candidate. This is done until all the seats are filled. Click on one of the constituencies in the first link to see an in-depth look at the voting system. It is amazing.

Belated French Election Update

So I never got around to updating my readers on how my prediction held up. Well, I currently predicted that the department that Bayrou originally won in and one other would shift in favor of Royal. Along with this, four other departments in which Sarkozy was originally the top candidate, switched to Royal.

Not heeding Le Pen's call to boycott, voter turnout went up during the second round, from 83.77% to 83.97%, although, the number of spoilt or null votes tripled, so the number of votes actually counted dropped.

In the end, in appears that Bayrou voters split 50.64/49.36 in favor of Royal. So the 50/50 split prediction seems to have been fairly accurate. The slight boost to Royal didn't do her much good though, she still lost.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Chat Logs III

So continues my yearly assessment of who I talk to the most on AIM. A new factor in this year's assessment is that I'm now using Trillian, which saves my chat logs in a different format, so it's not directly comparable to previous years. However, Trillian does allow me to include MSN conversations in my totals, although none of people I talk to through MSN made it to the top six.

Robert finally lost his long held top spot as living with him gave me little reason to IM him. Kate and Helen have also fallen out of the top six. First and second place now belong to new entrants, Veronica and Mai-Anh, Celeste has dropped to third, Kimberly reentered the list at fourth, and Joseph and Carl make up the remainder. This leaves Celeste the only person to be in the top six all three assessments. I find it funny that Joseph made the list despite the fact that he was my roommate and had no reason to IM me and I had him blocked much of last semester for previously stated reason.

The amount of my chats with my top six has once again risen to just over half of all my IM conversations. At this rate, in five years, I will only talk to six people via IM.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

The Recording Industry Hates its Customers

Something Awful

Pandora is an internet radio site that tries to find music listeners might enjoy based on their preferences. It recently sent an e-mail out to its international users telling them service will be cut due to licensing issues. What I don't understand is why the recording industry thinks it necessary to shutdown a site that promotes music. It's basically free advertising. Listeners can't buy the songs from Pandora and they can't play songs on demand. All Pandora does is give listeners a preview of music they may have never heard of otherwise. I wonder why it's not treated like a regular radio station.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Predictions for France

I'm becoming somewhat annoyed that the list of popular baby names has not been updated yet so I can see how my predictions stand up to reality. So now I'm going to try and predict something that will be settled very soon, May 5th in fact, the French election.

The first round saw Sarkozy and Royal win, so now the second is just between them. Presumably, rightist voters will support Sarkozy and leftist voters will support Royal, that just leaves the votes from those that voted for Bayrou, the centrist candidate, up in the air. The prediction is that Bayrou supporters will split 50/50. So using this information, I predicted what the result of the French election might be.

The support of the combined right-wing parties was 43.85% in the first round.
The support of the combined left-wing parties was 36.44% in the first round.
So Bayrou supporters splitting 50/50 gives Sarkozy the presidency.

Just for fun, I made a map of what the predicted election map would be with these assumptions. Red and Pink are for Royal and Blue and Light Blue are for Sarkozy.

What I find interesting is that it is pretty much the same as the map of the first round of voting, as only in two departments did the other ten candidates act as spoilers, one of which Bayrou won in the first round. Not that it really matters as the winner is based on total votes not by how many departments are won.

Leaving some room for error, the Pink and Light Blue departments are ones that respectively favor Royal and Sarkozy by a margin of less than 5%, and could go either way. In fact it seems likely that Royal may fair better than predicted. Although Bayrou will not endorse either candidate, he has been more harsh of Sarkozy. Also Le Pen has asked his supporters, who will likely vote for Sarkozy, to abstain.

Just for fun, I made another map in which Bayrou beats Royal in the first round. The required 5% boost in support of Bayrou only gives him nine departments though. Bayrou departments are Green.


If Bayrou made it to the second round, he would very likely win as he would get most of the leftist votes in addition to those of his own supporters.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

A Viking Funeral

The Local

The motorized viking ship that they had in Stockholm was recently destroyed in a fire. I never rode on it, but I was always entertained by its presence. I hope they build a new one.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Giuliani Loses my Vote

Politico

Giuliani was the last Republican candidate I would have considered voting for. Well he lost my vote when he basically said voting for the Democrats in 2008 will lead to more terrorist attacks. This is the kind of argument I expect to hear from a high school drop-out, not someone who deserves to be president. Islamic fundamentalists don't attack because they "hate freedom". Of course, if they hated freedom, maybe we should vote Republican so that the Democrats don't give us more freedom by "[cutting] back on the Patriot Act, electronic surveillance, interrogation".

In anycase, Obama gets brownie points for his reply, "Rudy Giuliani today has taken the politics of fear to a new low and I believe Americans are ready to reject those kind of politics. America’s mayor should know that when it comes to 9/11 and fighting terrorists, America is united. We know we can win this war based on shared purpose, not the same divisive politics that question your patriotism if you dare to question failed policies that have made us less secure. I think we should focus on strengthening our intelligence, working with local authorities and doing all the things we haven't yet done to keep Americans safe. The threat we face is real, and deserves better than to be the punchline of another political attack."

Monday, April 23, 2007

Maptastic Day

Strange Maps

It's been awhile since I've updated. I've been meaning to share this site for awhile. I think it's pretty interesting. There are not just strange maps, but maps of places from history that we never hear about.

Electoral Geography

Another fun one that I found looking up information on the recent French election. Click on "Statistics" and it takes you to a list of countries which they have information on and usually maps.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Shanghai!

Global Cities: Shanghai

I'm going to Shanghai tomorrow! I'm going with a group of students who are doing research of some form. I'll be studying how people in China interact with the internet, online games, and the virtual economy. I should probably pack.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Those Old People are Dropping Like Flies

BBC

I read this article out of confusion as I thought it was old news, but apparently not. The oldest person in the world died last week too. Mrs Tillman was only the oldest person in the world for one week. What I found interesting though is that one the side they list related articles. Apparently on December 12th the oldest person died, on January 19th the oldest woman died, on January 24th the oldest person died, and now on January 29th the oldest person died. At this rate, by the end of the year, the oldest person in the world will be 36.

Also, there's a typo at the bottom of the page (as of 2PM) that has the new oldest person in the world as 9 years older than the one that just died.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Name Trends for 2006

Social Security Online

At the end of February, the Social Security Administration will update its list of the most popular baby names. Using the data available, here are my predictions on the top 10 boy and girl names of 2006.

Alexander will replace Joseph in the boy's top 10.

Sophia and Mia will replace Samantha and Ashley in the girl's top 10.

Joshua will replace Micheal as the second most popular boy name.

Ava will greatly increase in popular and may replace Emma as the second most popular girl name.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Emma Wins!

Svenska Namn

Reading Swedish news, I found this site which ranks the most popular baby names in Sweden. "Top 100 Flickor" is the girl list and "Top 100 Pojkar" is the boy list. There are quite a few interesting names on the lists, although what most caught my attention was that nearly 3/4ths of the girl names end with "A".

Wikipedia

Doing farther research to see if there was similar information for other countries I went to Wikipedia and discovered an interesting trend. Emma has became a popular name throughout Northern Europe and Anglo nations. Emma is the most popular name in New Zealand, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Norway, and Sweden. It is the second most popular in Denmark, Netherlands, Scotland, Canada, and the US (first in 20 states). It is also third in France and tenth in Australia. It seems I'm going to be meeting a lot more Emmas in the next few years.

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

This Town is Going Places

The Local

Thanks to the sinking land caused by decades of mining, the northern Sweden city of Kiruna will have to be moved 4 km to the Northwest. I've been there before, it would a nice place to live if it weren't so cold, or imperil of sinking.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

It Has Been Foretold

I went to an Asian restaurant today and my fortune cookie read, "an airplane ride is soon in your future sending you to fun!" For those unaware, I'm going to Shanghai in February.