(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 77%
Hamlin 23%
Harvick 0.3%
Both Hamlin and Harvick were able to makes gains on Johnson at Martinsville. Hamlin is only 6 points behind Johnson, but Johnson still has a much better chance of winning as he has a better record. Harvick is still just hanging in, but next week's race is at Talladega. While Talladega is pretty much a crapshoot, Harvick has a better average at superspeedways than Hamlin and Johnson.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Sunday, October 17, 2010
NASCAR Chase: Charlotte
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 79%
Hamlin 14%
Gordon 7%
Harvick 0.3%
Poor finishes by Kurt Busch and Stewart take them out of contention, leaving only four drivers left with a chance for the championship. Johnson came in third, but first place went to a non-Chase driver, McMurray, and second place was Kyle Busch, which only succeeded in giving him enough points to be currently tied with Stewart. So Johnson was able to increase his points lead slightly. The next race is at Martinsville, which is a good track for both Johnson and Hamlin, so they may very well be the only contenders left after next week. In order for Harvick to stay in contention, he will have to beat Johnson by nearly 60 points at Martinsville, whereas Gordon has a chance of staying on as long as Johnson doesn't gain more than 20 points than him.
Johnson 79%
Hamlin 14%
Gordon 7%
Harvick 0.3%
Poor finishes by Kurt Busch and Stewart take them out of contention, leaving only four drivers left with a chance for the championship. Johnson came in third, but first place went to a non-Chase driver, McMurray, and second place was Kyle Busch, which only succeeded in giving him enough points to be currently tied with Stewart. So Johnson was able to increase his points lead slightly. The next race is at Martinsville, which is a good track for both Johnson and Hamlin, so they may very well be the only contenders left after next week. In order for Harvick to stay in contention, he will have to beat Johnson by nearly 60 points at Martinsville, whereas Gordon has a chance of staying on as long as Johnson doesn't gain more than 20 points than him.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
NASCAR Chase: Fontana
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 65%
Gordon 15%
Hamlin 9%
Kurt Busch 6%
Stewart 2%
Harvick 2%
Fontana was apparently a rough track for many drivers as four dropped out of consideration: Edwards, Biffle, Kyle Busch, and Burton. Johnson managed to improve his points lead and thus his chances of winning. Johnson is likely to improve his position again this weekend as the next race is at one of his best tracks, Charlotte. Stewart and Harvick are going to have to do well if they're going to stay in contention.
Johnson 65%
Gordon 15%
Hamlin 9%
Kurt Busch 6%
Stewart 2%
Harvick 2%
Fontana was apparently a rough track for many drivers as four dropped out of consideration: Edwards, Biffle, Kyle Busch, and Burton. Johnson managed to improve his points lead and thus his chances of winning. Johnson is likely to improve his position again this weekend as the next race is at one of his best tracks, Charlotte. Stewart and Harvick are going to have to do well if they're going to stay in contention.
Sunday, October 03, 2010
NASCAR Chase: Kansas
Johnson took the points lead today, but only by 8 points. Based on current points, anyone could win, but accounting for last year's results, Johnson is picking a massive lead.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 55%
Gordon 14%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 9%
Biffle 3%
Kyle Busch2%
Harvick 2%
Burton 2%
Stewart 1%
Edwards 0.3%
Even though Biffle won the race, he didn't make any gains in terms of the chances of winning the Cup. Johnson came in second, but received the same number of points as Harvick and Stewart as he didn't lead any laps but they both did, with Stewart leading the most laps today. Despite this, they also didn't make gains in their chances of winning. Bowyer and Kenseth are now out of contention.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 55%
Gordon 14%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 9%
Biffle 3%
Kyle Busch2%
Harvick 2%
Burton 2%
Stewart 1%
Edwards 0.3%
Even though Biffle won the race, he didn't make any gains in terms of the chances of winning the Cup. Johnson came in second, but received the same number of points as Harvick and Stewart as he didn't lead any laps but they both did, with Stewart leading the most laps today. Despite this, they also didn't make gains in their chances of winning. Bowyer and Kenseth are now out of contention.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
Local Swedish Elections
At the same time as the national election, Sweden holds its more local level elections. I wasn't planning on making a post about them, but something about them intrigued me. While the Social Democrats did poorly during the national election, they seemed to hold up pretty well in local elections, even gaining seats in many cases. So I decided to look more closely.
Sweden is divided into 21 län (plus Gotland which doesn't count as a län because its population is too small). Each län has its own government called a landsting. Looking at the results for the landsting elections, I found that on average the Social Democrats lost 1.1% of the vote, which isn't great, but is far better than the 4.3% they lost in national elections.
The Moderates gained the most in the landsting elections, averaging a 3% gain in each län, but their victory is tempered by the fact that their partners in the Alliance lost a huge share of the vote. Notably, the Center Party and the Christian Democrats lost voters in every single län while the People's Party only made modest gains in 3, losing voters in the other 18. As a whole, the Alliance only managed to make gains in 4 län despite the Moderates' success.
On the other hand, while the Social Democrats and the Left didn't do well, the Greens made gains greater than both of their loses, so the Red-Greens made gains in 11 län. Like the Moderates, the Greens increased their share of the vote in every single län.
Change in share of the votes:
You may notice that in many of the län, both coalitions lost votes, this is largely because of the Sweden Democrats, which doesn't belong to either coalition, gaining a greater share of the votes. Also, many of the län have local Health Care Parties. health care in Sweden is handled at the local level, so these parties do not operate at the national level. Most of them did poorly this election, but some did make gains.
Relative to each other, the Red-Greens made gains over the Alliance in 14 of the 21 län. So at a local level, the election was a victory for the Red-Greens.
Sweden is divided into 21 län (plus Gotland which doesn't count as a län because its population is too small). Each län has its own government called a landsting. Looking at the results for the landsting elections, I found that on average the Social Democrats lost 1.1% of the vote, which isn't great, but is far better than the 4.3% they lost in national elections.
The Moderates gained the most in the landsting elections, averaging a 3% gain in each län, but their victory is tempered by the fact that their partners in the Alliance lost a huge share of the vote. Notably, the Center Party and the Christian Democrats lost voters in every single län while the People's Party only made modest gains in 3, losing voters in the other 18. As a whole, the Alliance only managed to make gains in 4 län despite the Moderates' success.
On the other hand, while the Social Democrats and the Left didn't do well, the Greens made gains greater than both of their loses, so the Red-Greens made gains in 11 län. Like the Moderates, the Greens increased their share of the vote in every single län.
Change in share of the votes:
| Län | Alliance | Red-Green |
| Blekinge | -2.09% | -2.74% |
| Dalarnas | -2.55% | 0.44% |
| Gävleborgs | -2.31% | 0.16% |
| Hallands | 0.05% | -1.29% |
| Jämtlands | -3.29% | 0.80% |
| Jönköpings | -1.86% | -0.44% |
| Kalmar | -2.57% | 0.93% |
| Kronobergs | -1.56% | -0.84% |
| Norrbottens | -1.92% | 1.34% |
| Skåne | -0.24% | -1.92% |
| Stockholms | -1.26% | 0.95% |
| Södermanlands | -0.99% | -2.35% |
| Uppsala | -3.26% | 2.35% |
| Värmlands | 0.43% | -0.17% |
| Västerbottens | -3.07% | 2.44% |
| Västernorrlands | 0.90% | -2.69% |
| Västmanlands | -3.39% | 2.72% |
| Västra Götalands | -1.44% | -1.13% |
| Örebro | -2.21% | 1.20% |
| Östergötlands | 0.01% | 2.79% |
You may notice that in many of the län, both coalitions lost votes, this is largely because of the Sweden Democrats, which doesn't belong to either coalition, gaining a greater share of the votes. Also, many of the län have local Health Care Parties. health care in Sweden is handled at the local level, so these parties do not operate at the national level. Most of them did poorly this election, but some did make gains.
Relative to each other, the Red-Greens made gains over the Alliance in 14 of the 21 län. So at a local level, the election was a victory for the Red-Greens.
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