While last week's race gave some hope that the Chase would be competitive when Johnson finished 25th while Bowyer made a surprise win, recent events have worked out in Johnson's favor. First, Bowyer had 150 points deducted for cheating. This plus a bad result at Dover have come close to ending his chances of winning the cup. Johnson won at Dover plus led the most laps, taking him from 7th to 2nd in points.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 48%
Kurt Busch 12%
Gordon 12%
Hamlin 10%
Kyle Busch 5%
Burton 4%
Biffle 3%
Harvick 2%
Stewart 2%
Edwards 1%
Kenseth 1%
Bowyer 0.4%
Monday, September 27, 2010
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Sweden Gets an 8th Party
Val.se Swedish Election results in Swedish
World Elections Analysis of the election in English
Swedish elections were last week. I waited a bit to post about it until official results were in. Given my interest in the nation, I seem almost required to post about it. During the elections in Germany, I made a pretty detailed post about all the parties in Germany, however, I can't really do the same for Sweden as despite my interest, I'm not terribly well aware of the political situation and the divisions between the parties. The 4 right-wing parties, known collectively as the Alliance all seem basically the same to me.
The Social Democrats managed to stay the largest party, but just barely, winning only 30.66% of the vote compared to the Moderates 30.06%. While they are the largest party, this is actually their worst result since 1914. It is also the best result by the Moderates since 1914. The World Elections site points to the fact that because the Moderates have largely embraced the welfare state, they have undermined the Social Democrats by giving them less to attack them on. To me, it's kind of sad to see the Social Democrats in such a weakened position as I really came to admire what they achieved while I was studying there.
Up until recently, it really seemed like the Social Democrats were going to win the election. They had largely lost the 2006 election due to an unpopular leader, however, once he resigned they retook a strong lead in the polls. As the election neared, support began to drop off as the new leader, Sahlin, has been rather ineffectual and conditions under the Moderates has been pretty good. Sweden is one of the few western nations with a solidly growing economy.
Prior to the 2010, it seemed likely that one of the minor parties would drop below the 4% threshold needed to get a seat in the Riksdag. As I mentioned before, the 4 parties that make up the Alliance have little to distinguish themselves from each other, so the more dominant Moderates were starting to take votes from the three smaller parties. Also, the Sweden Democrats, a far-right party not yet in the Riksdag, were gaining in the polls, reducing available votes to the established seven parties. Polling prior to the election showed the Christian Democrats dropping below 4% on a few occasion, but they managed to hold on to 5.6% of the vote in the end, even with the Sweden Democrats entering the Riksdag with 5.7%.
Even though there are now 8 parties in the Riksdag, it seems that the there is some concentration of votes happening. Of the the 8 parties, only 3 increased their share of the vote. The People's Party and the Left gained votes, but due to high turnout, they lost in relative terms. Of the 4 right-wing parties, only the Moderates increased their number of seats. Similarly, of the 3 left-wing parties, only the Greens gained seats (as predicted in my post about green parties, they are now the 3rd largest party).
The big controversy this election was the Sweden Democrats entering the Riksdag on a rather xenophobic platform. None of the other parties are willing to work with them, which creates kind of a problem in that the Alliance is two seats short of a majority. However, unlike most countries that require a government to have a majority, governments in Sweden can have a minority as long as a majority doesn't vote against them. Given that the alternatives are to have the Sweden Democrats be in government, have the Greens leave the Social Democrats coalition, or hold new elections, it seems unlikely that the Social Democrats will block the continuation of the Alliance government. Minority governments are actually the norm in Sweden. The Social Democrats rarely received more than 50% of the vote, but were able to form governments on their own as the Communists, now the Left, would not vote against them.
Here's a map of the largest party in Sweden by län back in 2006. Red is Social Democrat and Blue is Moderate.
Compare to 2010.
Even though the Social Democrats only have a 0.6% edge over the Moderates, the Moderates' votes are concentrated in the population centers of Stockholm, Göteborg, Malmö, and Uppsala. The Social Democrats managed to get 51.86% in the northernmost, but sparsely populated, län of Norrbottens.
Another map of interest is how the coalitions as a whole did in each län. This back in 2006, Red is the Red-Green coalition led by the Social Democrats, blue is the Alliance led by the Moderates.
Even though the Moderates were only the largest party in Stockholm, together with the rest of the Alliance, they managed to get over 50% in much of southern Sweden.
The 2010 map is a bit different. Gray is where neither Red-Green nor Alliance hold majority due to the presence of the Sweden Democrats.
As the the Red-Green and Alliance received similar shares of the vote in the gray areas, the map basically show what by Swedish standards are swing län.
In case people are wondering, the Pirate Party increased their share of the vote, but only from 0.63% to 0.65%. In 2006, the district where the Pirates received the largest share of the vote (3.63%) was the district where my dormitory was located when I attended Uppsala. This year, the Pirates best district was one near Lund University that gave them 4.72%.
World Elections Analysis of the election in English
Swedish elections were last week. I waited a bit to post about it until official results were in. Given my interest in the nation, I seem almost required to post about it. During the elections in Germany, I made a pretty detailed post about all the parties in Germany, however, I can't really do the same for Sweden as despite my interest, I'm not terribly well aware of the political situation and the divisions between the parties. The 4 right-wing parties, known collectively as the Alliance all seem basically the same to me.
The Social Democrats managed to stay the largest party, but just barely, winning only 30.66% of the vote compared to the Moderates 30.06%. While they are the largest party, this is actually their worst result since 1914. It is also the best result by the Moderates since 1914. The World Elections site points to the fact that because the Moderates have largely embraced the welfare state, they have undermined the Social Democrats by giving them less to attack them on. To me, it's kind of sad to see the Social Democrats in such a weakened position as I really came to admire what they achieved while I was studying there.
Up until recently, it really seemed like the Social Democrats were going to win the election. They had largely lost the 2006 election due to an unpopular leader, however, once he resigned they retook a strong lead in the polls. As the election neared, support began to drop off as the new leader, Sahlin, has been rather ineffectual and conditions under the Moderates has been pretty good. Sweden is one of the few western nations with a solidly growing economy.
Prior to the 2010, it seemed likely that one of the minor parties would drop below the 4% threshold needed to get a seat in the Riksdag. As I mentioned before, the 4 parties that make up the Alliance have little to distinguish themselves from each other, so the more dominant Moderates were starting to take votes from the three smaller parties. Also, the Sweden Democrats, a far-right party not yet in the Riksdag, were gaining in the polls, reducing available votes to the established seven parties. Polling prior to the election showed the Christian Democrats dropping below 4% on a few occasion, but they managed to hold on to 5.6% of the vote in the end, even with the Sweden Democrats entering the Riksdag with 5.7%.
Even though there are now 8 parties in the Riksdag, it seems that the there is some concentration of votes happening. Of the the 8 parties, only 3 increased their share of the vote. The People's Party and the Left gained votes, but due to high turnout, they lost in relative terms. Of the 4 right-wing parties, only the Moderates increased their number of seats. Similarly, of the 3 left-wing parties, only the Greens gained seats (as predicted in my post about green parties, they are now the 3rd largest party).
The big controversy this election was the Sweden Democrats entering the Riksdag on a rather xenophobic platform. None of the other parties are willing to work with them, which creates kind of a problem in that the Alliance is two seats short of a majority. However, unlike most countries that require a government to have a majority, governments in Sweden can have a minority as long as a majority doesn't vote against them. Given that the alternatives are to have the Sweden Democrats be in government, have the Greens leave the Social Democrats coalition, or hold new elections, it seems unlikely that the Social Democrats will block the continuation of the Alliance government. Minority governments are actually the norm in Sweden. The Social Democrats rarely received more than 50% of the vote, but were able to form governments on their own as the Communists, now the Left, would not vote against them.
Here's a map of the largest party in Sweden by län back in 2006. Red is Social Democrat and Blue is Moderate.
Compare to 2010.
Even though the Social Democrats only have a 0.6% edge over the Moderates, the Moderates' votes are concentrated in the population centers of Stockholm, Göteborg, Malmö, and Uppsala. The Social Democrats managed to get 51.86% in the northernmost, but sparsely populated, län of Norrbottens.
Another map of interest is how the coalitions as a whole did in each län. This back in 2006, Red is the Red-Green coalition led by the Social Democrats, blue is the Alliance led by the Moderates.
Even though the Moderates were only the largest party in Stockholm, together with the rest of the Alliance, they managed to get over 50% in much of southern Sweden.
The 2010 map is a bit different. Gray is where neither Red-Green nor Alliance hold majority due to the presence of the Sweden Democrats.
As the the Red-Green and Alliance received similar shares of the vote in the gray areas, the map basically show what by Swedish standards are swing län.
In case people are wondering, the Pirate Party increased their share of the vote, but only from 0.63% to 0.65%. In 2006, the district where the Pirates received the largest share of the vote (3.63%) was the district where my dormitory was located when I attended Uppsala. This year, the Pirates best district was one near Lund University that gave them 4.72%.
Monday, September 20, 2010
NASCAR Chase: Loudon
Johnson actually did poorly this week, giving everyone else a better chance of winning the Sprint Cup. He's still the favorite, but right now he's seventh in points, so he'll have to do well these next few races to take the top spot.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 37%
Gordon 14%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 9%
Bowyer 7%
Kyle Busch 5%
Biffle 4%
Burton 4%
Stewart 3%
Harvick 3%
Kenseth 2%
Edwards 1%
The biggest loser was of course Johnson who had the most to lose to begin with (47% to 37%). The biggest gainers were Bowyer and Hamlin, who finished 1st and 2nd and both increased their chances by 3 percentage points. The fact that Johnson has falling behind in points means this could be a competitive Chase for the Sprint Cup.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 37%
Gordon 14%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 9%
Bowyer 7%
Kyle Busch 5%
Biffle 4%
Burton 4%
Stewart 3%
Harvick 3%
Kenseth 2%
Edwards 1%
The biggest loser was of course Johnson who had the most to lose to begin with (47% to 37%). The biggest gainers were Bowyer and Hamlin, who finished 1st and 2nd and both increased their chances by 3 percentage points. The fact that Johnson has falling behind in points means this could be a competitive Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Green Politics' Day in the Sun
I was reading an article on TheLocal.de about a recent poll showing that Germans think that the CDU is too conservative. However, also mentioned in the article is that recent polls show the Greens with 18% of the vote. This isn't just a notable high, this massive. In the last election, the 2nd largest party, the SPD, only managed to get 23%. During the last election, the Greens were 5th with just under 11% (their best result ever), now they are 3rd, by a wide margin.
This reminded me of the upcoming election Sweden, with polls showing record support for the Green Party (Miljöpartiet). While they have fallen from their record 10% over the summer, they are still on track to become the 3rd largest party, up from 7th, as support for the other minor parties have waned in recent years.
This further reminded me of the recent election in Australia where the Green Party won its first seat in the House of Representatives and made large gains in the Senate.
It seems that Green Politics are starting to catch on. It appears to be connected to flagging support for traditional labor parties. While many green parties nominally maintain a centrist stance, their support largely comes from leftists. With 3 examples of green parties gaining support, I decided to see if the trend holds true for other countries. The table below shows support for the greens during a past election compared to support during the most recent election or a recent poll. I only included green parties that received more than 1% of the vote.
Somes notes on the numbers above. The "green parties" in Denmark and Hungary are not traditional green parties, they are respectively socialist and liberal parties with strong environmental platforms. While the French green party lost support in the last parliamentary election, they did really well during the more recent European Election (16%). Unfortunately, I couldn't find any polls of current support. The Irish green party was left off the table because current polls are highly inconsistent, with support ranging from 2% to 6%. The numbers for Belgium and Israel are of its two green parties combined. For Estonia, Hungary, and Colombia, "N/A" means that the party had not run in a prior election and there are no available polls from after the most recent election. For Vanuatu, "N/A" it means the information isn't available, however, the green party lost a seat, so presumably their support was down.
It appears that green parties are largely gaining support. The only major exception is the green party of Czechia (I like this name better than Czech Republic, so I'm using it). I'm curious as to what happened there, but not really sure where I would find that information in English. One other thing of note, all the countries with a high-level support for Green parties are either in Northern Europe or are countries where the majority of the population are of Northern European ancestry.
This reminded me of the upcoming election Sweden, with polls showing record support for the Green Party (Miljöpartiet). While they have fallen from their record 10% over the summer, they are still on track to become the 3rd largest party, up from 7th, as support for the other minor parties have waned in recent years.
This further reminded me of the recent election in Australia where the Green Party won its first seat in the House of Representatives and made large gains in the Senate.
It seems that Green Politics are starting to catch on. It appears to be connected to flagging support for traditional labor parties. While many green parties nominally maintain a centrist stance, their support largely comes from leftists. With 3 examples of green parties gaining support, I decided to see if the trend holds true for other countries. The table below shows support for the greens during a past election compared to support during the most recent election or a recent poll. I only included green parties that received more than 1% of the vote.
| Country | Past Election | Recent Election/Poll |
| Iceland | 14.3% | 21.7% |
| Germany | 10.7% | 18% |
| Denmark | 13% | 17.5% |
| Australia | 9% | 13.1% |
| Luxembourg | 11.6% | 11.7% |
| Latvia | 16.7% | 11.3% |
| Austria | 11.1% | 10.4% |
| Canada | 6.8% | 10% |
| Switzerland | 7.4% | 9.6% |
| Belgium | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Finland | 8% | 8.5% |
| Sweden | 5.2% | 8% |
| Hungary | N/A | 7.5% |
| Estonia | N/A | 7.1% |
| New Zealand | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| Netherlands | 4.6% | 6.7% |
| Brazil | 1.4% | 3.6% |
| Vanuatu | N/A | 3.4% |
| France | 4.5% | 3.3% |
| Andorra | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| Colombia | N/A | 3% |
| Greece | 1.1% | 2.5% |
| Czechia | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Cyprus | 2% | 2% |
| Malta | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| Israel | 1.5% | 1.2% |
Somes notes on the numbers above. The "green parties" in Denmark and Hungary are not traditional green parties, they are respectively socialist and liberal parties with strong environmental platforms. While the French green party lost support in the last parliamentary election, they did really well during the more recent European Election (16%). Unfortunately, I couldn't find any polls of current support. The Irish green party was left off the table because current polls are highly inconsistent, with support ranging from 2% to 6%. The numbers for Belgium and Israel are of its two green parties combined. For Estonia, Hungary, and Colombia, "N/A" means that the party had not run in a prior election and there are no available polls from after the most recent election. For Vanuatu, "N/A" it means the information isn't available, however, the green party lost a seat, so presumably their support was down.
It appears that green parties are largely gaining support. The only major exception is the green party of Czechia (I like this name better than Czech Republic, so I'm using it). I'm curious as to what happened there, but not really sure where I would find that information in English. One other thing of note, all the countries with a high-level support for Green parties are either in Northern Europe or are countries where the majority of the population are of Northern European ancestry.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
NASCAR Chase Begins
No real surprises from the Richmond race. We now have our 12 Chase drivers, so let's take a look at who are the top contenders for winning the Sprint Cup. Their chances are based on their current points and their record from last year's Chase.
Johnson 47%
Gordon 12%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 7%
Biffle 4%
Bowyer 4%
Kyle Busch 4%
Stewart 3%
Burton 3%
Kenseth 2%
Harvick 2%
Edwards 1%
Johnson averaged 162 points a race last year, compared to everyone else that averaged between 146 and 112. This makes him far and away the most likely to win the Sprint Cup. There's still a 53% chance that someone else could win, it's just very uncertain as to who can really challenge Johnson. At the beginning of the Chase, everyone's points are reset to 5000, with an extra 10 points for each race won earlier in the season. The extra points are known as the "Kenseth rule" as they were created in order to stop a repeat of the time Kenseth managed to win the Cup with only one win all season. This makes Hamlin the current points leader, having won 6 races so far. These extra points have little effect in terms of their chances of winning right now, but could prove essential towards the end of the season.
Given some the drivers tenuous chances, it's very likely that if Johnson does well Loudon, drivers like Edwards and Harvick will see their chances evaporate. However, if Johnson does poorly, it could throw everything wide open.
Looking back at the pre-Chase races, I wanted to point out some notable events.
Best Season
Harvick, started the season with only a 21% chance of making the Chase, lower than Casey Mears, only to become the points leader for the majority of the season. He's chances of making the Chase increased every single week.
Worst Season
Martin, started the season with a 55% chance of making the Chase, the highest for someone that eventually didn't make it. By the Charlotte race, he had a 69% chance, but he fortunes quickly reversed, leaving him 15th in points.
Best Reversal
Bowyer, after Watkins Glen he had only a 30% chance, but only two races later, he had an 82% chance.
Most Tenacious
Earnhardt, never had a more than 28% chance, but managed to hold some hope of making the Chase for almost the entire season.
Most Secure
Stewart, his chances never fell below 85%.
Johnson 47%
Gordon 12%
Kurt Busch 11%
Hamlin 7%
Biffle 4%
Bowyer 4%
Kyle Busch 4%
Stewart 3%
Burton 3%
Kenseth 2%
Harvick 2%
Edwards 1%
Johnson averaged 162 points a race last year, compared to everyone else that averaged between 146 and 112. This makes him far and away the most likely to win the Sprint Cup. There's still a 53% chance that someone else could win, it's just very uncertain as to who can really challenge Johnson. At the beginning of the Chase, everyone's points are reset to 5000, with an extra 10 points for each race won earlier in the season. The extra points are known as the "Kenseth rule" as they were created in order to stop a repeat of the time Kenseth managed to win the Cup with only one win all season. This makes Hamlin the current points leader, having won 6 races so far. These extra points have little effect in terms of their chances of winning right now, but could prove essential towards the end of the season.
Given some the drivers tenuous chances, it's very likely that if Johnson does well Loudon, drivers like Edwards and Harvick will see their chances evaporate. However, if Johnson does poorly, it could throw everything wide open.
Looking back at the pre-Chase races, I wanted to point out some notable events.
Best Season
Harvick, started the season with only a 21% chance of making the Chase, lower than Casey Mears, only to become the points leader for the majority of the season. He's chances of making the Chase increased every single week.
Worst Season
Martin, started the season with a 55% chance of making the Chase, the highest for someone that eventually didn't make it. By the Charlotte race, he had a 69% chance, but he fortunes quickly reversed, leaving him 15th in points.
Best Reversal
Bowyer, after Watkins Glen he had only a 30% chance, but only two races later, he had an 82% chance.
Most Tenacious
Earnhardt, never had a more than 28% chance, but managed to hold some hope of making the Chase for almost the entire season.
Most Secure
Stewart, his chances never fell below 85%.
Monday, September 06, 2010
NASCAR week 24
Another strong finish for Bowyer has pretty much guaranteed him a spot in the Chase. My model currently gives Bowyer a 100% chance of making the Chase. However, it's still technically possible for Bowyer to not make it. If he finishes worse than 27th next week, there's a chance that Newman and McMurray could take the final spot, but they'd have to finish in the top 5 to do that. Martin still has a chance, but he would have to win the race and have Bowyer finish 39th or worse.
Starting next week, we'll see who has the best chance at winning the Chase (hint, it's Johnson).
Starting next week, we'll see who has the best chance at winning the Chase (hint, it's Johnson).
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