World Elections
I really enjoy following elections around the world partially because I'm fascinated by the eccentricities of different electoral systems and the political dynamics within different countries. The link above is to one of my favorite sites as the guy who runs it goes into great detail about recent elections, explaining how their system works, history of the political parties, and the issues at hand. He made his own list of elections that he's interested in at the end of last year and I figure I should make my own list of the elections I'm most interested in following this year in mostly chronological order. I say mostly because the dates for some elections haven't been set.
2/25 - Ireland - This one would be interesting to me even without the debt crisis hanging over everyone's heads. Ireland has one of the most fascinating and complex electoral methods in the world. A short explanation is that voters rank parties, and if their first ranked party fails to win a seat, their vote goes to their second choice, and so on. It appears that Fianna Fail (the dominant party since 1932) is going to get crushed this election due to their mismanagement, going from 41.5% of the vote in 2007 to hovering around 15% in current polls.
3/6 - Estonia - This is probably only interesting to me as I plan to do research there next fall. Most polls don't show much change. Estonia is politically interesting though as it's one of the few countries that's dominated by a classical liberal party.
4/17 - Finland - This is not likely to be an earth-shattering election, as the ruling coalition is unlikely to change. What is concerning is the rise of the nationalist True Finn party which has gone from having just 4% of the vote in 2007 to now polling at 16.6% and still rising.
5/5 - Various UK elections - Along with local elections, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales are holding elections for their respective legislative branches. Labour looks set to make massive gains in Scotland and Wales with both the Conservatives and Lib Dems looking to lose many seats and the respective nationalist parties doing about the same. With Northern Ireland it will be interesting to see if the nationalist continue to make their slow gains. Also, there will be nationwide referendum on adopting a new electoral method to replace the first-past-the-post system. It appears it may pass, but polls are close.
Jun - Thailand - Politics in Thailand have been rather tumultuous lately. It will be interesting to see if this election will bring about renewed stability or reawaken old grievances.
6/12 - Turkey - Turkish elections are interesting to me more in relation to their hopes of joining the EU. In 2010, the AK Party passed a constitutional referendum to help bring Turkey more inline with EU law. Since then, support for the AK Party has remained high and they are likely to maintain majority.
Sept - Egypt - Elections will probably end up being sooner, but for right now they are schedule to happen in September. There's really no telling what will happen.
Nov - Denmark - Denmark is required to hold an election before 11/12. Left-wing parties are currently leading in the polls, so there's likely going to be a change of government. The current government also has a long standing promise of holding a referendum on the four EU opt-outs Denmark currently has. It appears that the government may have dragged their feet on this too long as support for removing them, as the government would like to do, is dropping.
11/26 - New Zealand - Current polls show that the government won't change much after this election, what is a bit more interesting is that New Zealand is holding a voting method referendum that is a bit more complex than the UK. New Zealand currently uses a two-vote system, wherein voters vote for a local representative and for a party which will determine the distribution of seats. The vote is to whether or not to maintain the system, and if not, which of four systems would be preferred. The current system is favored to win.
Sometime - Tunisia - Elections weren't due to be held until 2014, but the removal of the president has changed quite a few things. According to the Tunisian Constitution, when the presidency is vacant, a new election needs to be held within 60 days, putting the election in mid-March. However, many are calling for an interim period to form a new constitution and government and hold the election at a later date.
Throughout the year - Germany - Several German states are holding local elections this year. As the current conservative government is unpopular, this elections could be a huge victory for the left, particularly the Greens which have been polling incredibly well since the 2009 elections.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Split Votes in Eurovision 2010 (or why I hate juries)
With Eurovision back on my radar as Germany is currently choosing which song Lena with sing this year, I decided to see if the the split votes for 2010 were available. Last year, the score a song received was a combination of both the televote and a jury vote. During the show, they only show the combined vote, but they release the televote and jury vote separately later. You can find the results on the Eurovision 2010 Wikipedia Article.
Germany won both the televote and jury vote, so the final result didn't change, but what annoys me is the songs that failed to reach the finals due to the jury vote. If it weren't for the jury vote two of my favorite entries, Lithuania and Finland, would have made it to to the finals. Sweden also missed out. Instead, Bosnia, Ireland, and Israel made it in thanks to the jury vote.
On the other side of the coin, had the contest been decided only by the jury vote, Estonia, Macedonia, and Malta would have made it into the finals. Instead we got Belarus, Moldova, and Russia. While Estonia was initially one of my favorites, the live performance was lackluster and I wasn't surprised when it didn't make it to the finals. So on the balance, I'm siding with the televoters on these songs.
Below I have the songs ranked by the differential in position they received from the televote and the jury vote. I decided not to look at it by points as Germany dominated the televote and such a ranking would make it look like the juries hated Germany's song (when it in fact it won the jury, but just barely) and loved all the other songs.
Positive score means the song did better with the televote, negative score means the song did better with the jury vote.
First Semi-Final
Russia: 10
Finland: 9
Belarus: 4
Iceland: 4
Moldova: 3
Serbia: 3
Greece: 2
Slovakia: 2
Latvia: 0
Belgium: -2
Poland: -2
Albania: -3
Macedonia: -5
Malta: -5
Bosnia: -6
Estonia: -7
Portugal: -7
The first semi-final was pretty decisive. I can understand that Russia probably did well in the televote thanks to bloc voting, but I don't know why Finland did so well with the televote but terribly with the jury vote. The only thing the televoters and juries agreed on was that Latvia was terrible.
Second Semi-Final
Lithuania: 5
Romania: 5
Denmark: 3
Netherlands: 3
Ukraine: 3
Azerbaijan: 2
Sweden: 2
Slovenia: 1
Turkey: 0
Bulgaria: 0
Armenia: -1
Cyprus: -1
Switzerland: -1
Croatia: -2
Georgia: -4
Ireland: -7
Israel: -8
The second semi-final was much less decisive, with only Ireland and Israel seeing really different results.
Final
France: 14
Serbia: 11
Spain: 8
Armenia: 6
Turkey: 6
Moldova: 5
Azerbaijan: 4
Denmark: 4
Greece: 4
Iceland: 4
Russia: 4
Belarus: 2
Germany: 0
United Kingdom: 0
Bosnia: -2
Romania: -3
Norway: -4
Albania: -5
Cyprus: -5
Georgia: -5
Portugal: -7
Ukraine: -7
Ireland: -8
Belgium: -12
Israel: -14
Apparently the only thing the televoters and the juries could agree on was that Germany won and the UK lost. It is interesting to see how fortunes change from the semi-finals to the final. For one, Belgium did pretty well with the televote during the semi-final, but then lost support in the final. Support for Romania totally flipped. Generally, with more entries and stiffer competition, most entries decline in position when they go from the semi-finals to the final, but Romania actually gained position as the jury vote ranked it 8th in the semi-final, but gave it 3rd place in the final.
Surprisingly, France and Spain (and Germany in terms of sheer points) did much better with the televoters as the addition of the jury vote was devised to help out the big four. Nothing could have saved the UK.
Also, in the jury vote, Belgium came just 2 points behind Germany, despite being a really boring song, or maybe because it was really boring. Overall, I think 2010 would have been better without the juries.
Germany won both the televote and jury vote, so the final result didn't change, but what annoys me is the songs that failed to reach the finals due to the jury vote. If it weren't for the jury vote two of my favorite entries, Lithuania and Finland, would have made it to to the finals. Sweden also missed out. Instead, Bosnia, Ireland, and Israel made it in thanks to the jury vote.
On the other side of the coin, had the contest been decided only by the jury vote, Estonia, Macedonia, and Malta would have made it into the finals. Instead we got Belarus, Moldova, and Russia. While Estonia was initially one of my favorites, the live performance was lackluster and I wasn't surprised when it didn't make it to the finals. So on the balance, I'm siding with the televoters on these songs.
Below I have the songs ranked by the differential in position they received from the televote and the jury vote. I decided not to look at it by points as Germany dominated the televote and such a ranking would make it look like the juries hated Germany's song (when it in fact it won the jury, but just barely) and loved all the other songs.
Positive score means the song did better with the televote, negative score means the song did better with the jury vote.
First Semi-Final
Russia: 10
Finland: 9
Belarus: 4
Iceland: 4
Moldova: 3
Serbia: 3
Greece: 2
Slovakia: 2
Latvia: 0
Belgium: -2
Poland: -2
Albania: -3
Macedonia: -5
Malta: -5
Bosnia: -6
Estonia: -7
Portugal: -7
The first semi-final was pretty decisive. I can understand that Russia probably did well in the televote thanks to bloc voting, but I don't know why Finland did so well with the televote but terribly with the jury vote. The only thing the televoters and juries agreed on was that Latvia was terrible.
Second Semi-Final
Lithuania: 5
Romania: 5
Denmark: 3
Netherlands: 3
Ukraine: 3
Azerbaijan: 2
Sweden: 2
Slovenia: 1
Turkey: 0
Bulgaria: 0
Armenia: -1
Cyprus: -1
Switzerland: -1
Croatia: -2
Georgia: -4
Ireland: -7
Israel: -8
The second semi-final was much less decisive, with only Ireland and Israel seeing really different results.
Final
France: 14
Serbia: 11
Spain: 8
Armenia: 6
Turkey: 6
Moldova: 5
Azerbaijan: 4
Denmark: 4
Greece: 4
Iceland: 4
Russia: 4
Belarus: 2
Germany: 0
United Kingdom: 0
Bosnia: -2
Romania: -3
Norway: -4
Albania: -5
Cyprus: -5
Georgia: -5
Portugal: -7
Ukraine: -7
Ireland: -8
Belgium: -12
Israel: -14
Apparently the only thing the televoters and the juries could agree on was that Germany won and the UK lost. It is interesting to see how fortunes change from the semi-finals to the final. For one, Belgium did pretty well with the televote during the semi-final, but then lost support in the final. Support for Romania totally flipped. Generally, with more entries and stiffer competition, most entries decline in position when they go from the semi-finals to the final, but Romania actually gained position as the jury vote ranked it 8th in the semi-final, but gave it 3rd place in the final.
Surprisingly, France and Spain (and Germany in terms of sheer points) did much better with the televoters as the addition of the jury vote was devised to help out the big four. Nothing could have saved the UK.
Also, in the jury vote, Belgium came just 2 points behind Germany, despite being a really boring song, or maybe because it was really boring. Overall, I think 2010 would have been better without the juries.
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