Unused Roads

I don't remember how I first became aware of this, but several years ago while doing research on the recession, I came across figures for miles driven on US highways. What was fascinating about them was that the figures perfectly corresponded to the dates set as the beginning and end of the recession. Miles driven peaked in November of 2007, fell for the following 18 months, and started to recover in June of 2009. I figured that the number would make its way back up and that would be the end of the story. But it wasn't. I checked again some months later, and the number had actually declined. As it sits now, the number has been improving since November 2011, but it's still far below it's 2007 high.

As it stands, total miles driven in the US are currently the same as in 2004. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the decline may have begun earlier. Up until 2002, monthly changes in miles driven closely matched a linear trend line, increasing around 5 billion miles every month. However, since November 2002, every month has been below what a linear trend line would predict. Even after switching to a polynomial trend line, the predicted and the actual results begin to diverge after July 2004. If the linear trend from 2002 had been maintained, as it had been for 15 years, miles driven would be 3.4 trillion instead of 2.9 trillion.

There is one more thing to consider, the US population has increased by 11 million since the recession began. So whereas total miles driven has more or less flat-lined since 2009, per capita miles driven continues to decline.

While total miles driven is the same as 8 years ago, miles per person is the same as 14 years ago. Similar to total miles driven, miles per person used to follow a linear trend line, but it began to diverge in December 2000.

The big question is, what does this mean? The sharp decline after 2007 is easily explained as a result of the recession while the continued decline could reflect the weakness of the recovery. However, slowing trends could be seen as far back as 2000. The lack of recovery in highway might not reflect the recession so much as a change in driving behavior. There are studies showing that car ownership is declining especially among young people. A further question is, will the current trend continue or will a confluence of improving economic conditions and population increase drive the number back up?

Election Spending

Total campaign spending per vote in federal elections (in 1998 dollars).

2010: $30.15
2008: $30.69
2006: $28.76
2004: $29.03
2002: $24.71
2000: $27.50
1998: $22.14