Global Population Decline

I got really interested in population decline while in East Germany, so I've been doing some research into causes and patterns. I had a file on my computer that included population estimates for 122 countries since 1950, so I've been doing some estimates on future population change. The current shift in population is a surprisingly global phenomenon. Half the countries in my sample will peak in population prior to 2060, and they represent a huge variety a nations, not just industrialized western nations.

I did notice a few patterns in doing this project. The current wave of decline started in eastern Europe, beginning with East Germany. Decline in East Germany was accelerated by the loss of the younger population who fled to West Germany prior to the Berlin Wall's construction. Later, Hungary started to decline with the rest of eastern Europe soon to follow after the fall of Communism.

I originally used a model that incorporated all the years from 1950 to 2008 (59-year model), but I noticed there was a major shift around 1989. Most of this can be attributed to the fall of Communism, but there were a number of nations that showed this shift that had nothing to do with Communism. Using just the years from 1989 to 2008 (20 year model), I found a huge change in my numbers, showing there has been a definite deceleration in population growth in recent years. Many countries that showed continuous growth in the future using the 59-year model showed eventual decline using the 20-year model.

Only a handful of countries buck this trend: Denmark, France, Iceland, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom, and New Zealand. Using the 20-year model, all these countries either show continuous future growth or at least a delay as to when they will reach peak population. They are also all industrialized countries. The reasons as to why this reversal has happened is likely different for each one, but it is probably related to increased immigration or policies that encourage more children. These examples show that not all countries at destined to decline once they industrialize.

I made a table of all the countries that already have peaked or, according to my estimates, will peak by 2100. They include 72 out of the 122 countries in my sample. The dates beyond 2020 are probably way off as anything can happen. Most signs point to the fact that population growth is decelerating faster than most models predict, but a few countries might be able to delay it. All countries listed at peaking in 2010 are countries that the 20-year model predicted should have already peaked, but haven't.

1968 - East Germany
1981 - Hungary
1988 - Armenia
1989 - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Trinidad and Tobago
1990 - Georgia, Romania
1991 - Lithuania
1992 - Kazakhstan
1993 - Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine
1994 - Croatia, Czech Republic
1995 - Russia
1998 - Poland
2001 - Zimbabwe
2003 - Slovenia
2005 - Germany, Japan
2007 - Italy
2010 - Austria, Greece, Iran, Macedonia, Slovakia, Sweden
2011 - Finland
2012 - Cyprus
2013 - South Korea, St. Lucia
2014 - Malta
2015 - Belgium
2016 - Taiwan
2018 - China
2019 - Uzbekistan
2021 - Albania
2022 - Thailand
2023 - Azerbaijan, Cambodia, South Africa
2027 - Tunisia
2028 - Switzerland, Singapore, Vietnam
2029 - Canada, Mozambique
2031 - Algeria
2034 - Bahrain, Israel
2037 - Ecuador
2039 - Chile
2041 - Turkey
2045 - Mexico
2052 - Zambia
2055 - Jordan
2056 - Venezuela
2058 - Peru
2059 - United States
2063 - Norway, Uruguay
2069 - Costa Rica, India
2070 - Myanmar, Saudi Arabia
2071 - Bolivia
2076 - Serbia, Montenegro (combined)
2094 - Cote d'Ivoire
2096 - Argentina