Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 100%
Gordon 100%
Hamlin 100%
Stewart 100%
Kurt Busch 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Harvick 97%
Kenseth 79%
Biffle 70%
Martin 58%
Edwards 53%
Newman 49%
Burton 44%
Bowyer 37%
Kahne 25%
Montoya 23%
Earnhardt 19%
Reutimann 19%
Logano 13%
McMurray 7%
Half of the Chase drivers are now more or less decided and Harvick will likely join them soon. Harvick was once again the biggest gainer (84% to 97%) as he points lead continues. The biggest loser was Kahne (35% to 25%) which is especially tragic as he led much of the race, but his engine blew.
Only 22 drivers have any chance of making the Chase now. Allmendinger, the 22nd driver, has a 3% chance.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
NASCAR week 16
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 100%
Gordon 100%
Hamlin 100%
Stewart 100%
Kyle Busch 98%
Kurt Busch 93%
Harvick 84%
Kenseth 79%
Biffle 71%
Martin 63%
Edwards 59%
Newman 45%
Burton 41%
Kahne 35%
Bowyer 34%
Montoya 32%
Reutimann 22%
Earnhardt 18%
Logano 12%
McMurray 8%
Harvick only finished third at Sonoma, but he picked up a commanding points lead, leading to the largest gains I've seen so far. Harvick's chances of making the Chase jumped 15 percentage points, from 69% to 84%. Because of Harvick hogging most of the potential gains, few other drivers made gains this week. Four drivers dropped 5 percentage points, Edwards, Bowyer, Logano, and Truex. Now only 23 drivers have a chance of making the Chase. Ambrose managed to maintain a 0.4% chance, but he should have done match better if he hadn't made a stupid mistake right at the end of the race.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Johnson 100%
Gordon 100%
Hamlin 100%
Stewart 100%
Kyle Busch 98%
Kurt Busch 93%
Harvick 84%
Kenseth 79%
Biffle 71%
Martin 63%
Edwards 59%
Newman 45%
Burton 41%
Kahne 35%
Bowyer 34%
Montoya 32%
Reutimann 22%
Earnhardt 18%
Logano 12%
McMurray 8%
Harvick only finished third at Sonoma, but he picked up a commanding points lead, leading to the largest gains I've seen so far. Harvick's chances of making the Chase jumped 15 percentage points, from 69% to 84%. Because of Harvick hogging most of the potential gains, few other drivers made gains this week. Four drivers dropped 5 percentage points, Edwards, Bowyer, Logano, and Truex. Now only 23 drivers have a chance of making the Chase. Ambrose managed to maintain a 0.4% chance, but he should have done match better if he hadn't made a stupid mistake right at the end of the race.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
NASCAR week 15
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Hamlin 100%
Gordon 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Johnson 100%
Kurt Busch 96%
Stewart 95%
Kenseth 81%
Harvick 69%
Edwards 64%
Biffle 63%
Martin 60%
Newman 45%
Burton 43%
Bowyer 39%
Montoya 31%
Kahne 31%
Reutimann 24%
Logano 17%
Earnhardt 16%
Truex 11%
With race winner Denny Hamlin already at 100%, the top gainer this week was Kurt Busch who finished third (88% to 96%). While Kahne finished second, he is very much an underdog now and it's going to take a lot of good finishes to get him into the Chase. The biggest loser was Newman (55% to 45%), who has been teetering on the edge of making the Chase since the beginning. He cannot afford bad finishes.
Currently only 25 drivers have a chance of making the Chase. Menard is last with a 0.3% chance. Vickers still has a 0.4% chance if he's ever able to return.
I just noticed that Edwards' and Logano's chances haven't change in four races. I wonder why.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Hamlin 100%
Gordon 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Johnson 100%
Kurt Busch 96%
Stewart 95%
Kenseth 81%
Harvick 69%
Edwards 64%
Biffle 63%
Martin 60%
Newman 45%
Burton 43%
Bowyer 39%
Montoya 31%
Kahne 31%
Reutimann 24%
Logano 17%
Earnhardt 16%
Truex 11%
With race winner Denny Hamlin already at 100%, the top gainer this week was Kurt Busch who finished third (88% to 96%). While Kahne finished second, he is very much an underdog now and it's going to take a lot of good finishes to get him into the Chase. The biggest loser was Newman (55% to 45%), who has been teetering on the edge of making the Chase since the beginning. He cannot afford bad finishes.
Currently only 25 drivers have a chance of making the Chase. Menard is last with a 0.3% chance. Vickers still has a 0.4% chance if he's ever able to return.
I just noticed that Edwards' and Logano's chances haven't change in four races. I wonder why.
Sunday, June 06, 2010
NASCAR week 14
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Hamlin 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Gordon 100%
Johnson 97%
Stewart 91%
Kurt Busch 88%
Kenseth 79%
Harvick 68%
Edwards 64%
Martin 62%
Biffle 62%
Newman 55%
Bowyer 44%
Burton 40%
Montoya 34%
Kahne 28%
Reutimann 27%
Logano 17%
Earnhardt 15%
Truex 11%
Two more drivers join Gordon with a 100% chance of making the Chase. For the first time, the biggest gainer wasn't the race winner. Harvick went from a 59% to a 68% chance thanks to being the current points leader. The only reason Hamlin's chances didn't increase more was because he can't go over 100%. The biggest loser was Vickers once again. Of people actually racing, Martin was the biggest loser (68% to 62%) due to a crash at the end of the race. Truex managed to overtake McMurray, but just barely, and his chances still remain very low.
Only one driver outside the top 15 saw their chances of making the Chase improve and only 26 drivers have any chance of making the Chase, with Ragan having a 0.1% chance.
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Hamlin 100%
Kyle Busch 100%
Gordon 100%
Johnson 97%
Stewart 91%
Kurt Busch 88%
Kenseth 79%
Harvick 68%
Edwards 64%
Martin 62%
Biffle 62%
Newman 55%
Bowyer 44%
Burton 40%
Montoya 34%
Kahne 28%
Reutimann 27%
Logano 17%
Earnhardt 15%
Truex 11%
Two more drivers join Gordon with a 100% chance of making the Chase. For the first time, the biggest gainer wasn't the race winner. Harvick went from a 59% to a 68% chance thanks to being the current points leader. The only reason Hamlin's chances didn't increase more was because he can't go over 100%. The biggest loser was Vickers once again. Of people actually racing, Martin was the biggest loser (68% to 62%) due to a crash at the end of the race. Truex managed to overtake McMurray, but just barely, and his chances still remain very low.
Only one driver outside the top 15 saw their chances of making the Chase improve and only 26 drivers have any chance of making the Chase, with Ragan having a 0.1% chance.
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