Another strong finish for Bowyer has pretty much guaranteed him a spot in the Chase. My model currently gives Bowyer a 100% chance of making the Chase. However, it's still technically possible for Bowyer to not make it. If he finishes worse than 27th next week, there's a chance that Newman and McMurray could take the final spot, but they'd have to finish in the top 5 to do that. Martin still has a chance, but he would have to win the race and have Bowyer finish 39th or worse.
Starting next week, we'll see who has the best chance at winning the Chase (hint, it's Johnson).
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