Tomorrow is the last race of the season. The points for the top three drivers are rather close so there's a chance any of them could win. I wanted to use a different method of determining who had the best chances of winning since it's down to just the last race. While Johnson has a good record during the Chase, his record at just the Homestead race is not as strong, and Hamlin and Harvick have very good averages there. Unfortunately, the method I chose was very labor intensive, so I never completed it, but based on the general trend I was seeing, this are the averages I'm giving for who has the best shot at winning the cup.
Hamlin 62%
Johnson 27%
Harvick 11%
Hamlin's chances are probably lower and Harvick's chances are probably higher as Hamlin has a wider variance of scores, but I didn't get that far in my analysis. However, it wouldn't mean much. Hamlin is by far the favorite and Harvick is the underdog.
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