Last year I made a post about majority-minority states. These are states where non-Hispanic Whites are not the majority. Currently only four states, CA, HI, NM, and TX, plus DC are considered majority-minority. However, the population of certain minority groups, mainly Hispanics and Asians, is growing rapidly. I made some predictions about when other states would become majority-minority states, which showed that by 2041, non-Hispanic Whites will be a minority in the US. These predictions used data from 2005-2008, so with the recent Census data, I updated the data with 2009-2010 figures.
What the 2010 Census revealed was that previous population estimates greatly underestimated the size of the Hispanic population. The predicted date for when a state would become a majority-minority state moved forward in all but 10 states. Only in three states, AZ, ME, and, MT, did the estimated minority population decline as a result of the new data. On average, the predicted date for when a state would become a majority-minority state moved forward ten years.
Next 10 majority-minority states:
Nevada - 2015
Maryland - 2017
Florida - 2020
Georgia - 2021
Arizona - 2024
New Jersey - 2024
Mississippi - 2029
Louisiana* - 2030
Delaware - 2033
New York - 2034
*The Louisiana estimate leaves out 2005 as there was massive, but temporary, decline in the Black population that skews the data.
The new data moves forward the date for when non-Hispanic Whites become an minority in the US from 2041 to 2034. Previous data showed only 12 majority-states by 2041, but new data shows 14 by just 2034 and 20 by 2041.
Only DC is showing a reversal as the non-Hispanic White population is increasing and could become the majority by 2026. Previous data showed Hawaii reversing, but the 2010 Census data disputes this, showing the non-Hispanic White population declining as a proportion.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
What a difference a day makes
BLS.gov
Just a couple of days after I made that map about unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their numbers for January. With new numbers, I decided to reassess my previous method of categorizing states by looking more at the number of people employed rather than the unemployment rate. The reason for this is a decline in the unemployment doesn't necessary mean that more people have jobs, people may given up looking for jobs for various unrelated reasons. So here's the new map:
The map still shows 26 states plus DC recovering. Some of the most important changes are that California, Florida, and Texas do not appear to be getting worse. I'm reluctant to say that they are fully recovering though until February numbers are available.
Kentucky is an oddity as it's employment numbers are improving, but the number of unemployed is growing at a faster rate.
Wyoming is the opposite situation, its employment numbers are declining, but the number of unemployed is declining at a faster rate.
Nevada is also problem in that it's unemployment rate greatly improved in January, but the number of people employed declined.
Employment numbers in Colorado are getting worse, but I couldn't really call it a double-dip recession because the employment numbers never really showed much improvement in the first place.
In any case, the Midwest and the Northwest are still doing incredibly well, but the recovery appears to be losing steam in the Rockies and the Southeast.
Just a couple of days after I made that map about unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their numbers for January. With new numbers, I decided to reassess my previous method of categorizing states by looking more at the number of people employed rather than the unemployment rate. The reason for this is a decline in the unemployment doesn't necessary mean that more people have jobs, people may given up looking for jobs for various unrelated reasons. So here's the new map:
The map still shows 26 states plus DC recovering. Some of the most important changes are that California, Florida, and Texas do not appear to be getting worse. I'm reluctant to say that they are fully recovering though until February numbers are available.
Kentucky is an oddity as it's employment numbers are improving, but the number of unemployed is growing at a faster rate.
Wyoming is the opposite situation, its employment numbers are declining, but the number of unemployed is declining at a faster rate.
Nevada is also problem in that it's unemployment rate greatly improved in January, but the number of people employed declined.
Employment numbers in Colorado are getting worse, but I couldn't really call it a double-dip recession because the employment numbers never really showed much improvement in the first place.
In any case, the Midwest and the Northwest are still doing incredibly well, but the recovery appears to be losing steam in the Rockies and the Southeast.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Unemployment in the US
I've been wanting to put something up here for awhile, but finals take time as do some of the things I want to work on for this blog. However, last night I started working on something that didn't take too much time.
I was looking at unemployment figures and seeing how different states were doing. I wasn't planning to do anything with it until I looked at Georgia's numbers. Like most states, Georgia's unemployment peaked around the end of 2009 and recovered slightly, but then started back up again at the end of 2010. It left me wondering if this was the sign of a double-dip recession, that we would see another peak in unemployment in the near future. So I made the following map:
Bright green - States that have shown continuous recovery since their peak in unemployment.
Dark green - States where unemployment is down from its peak, but there was little change in the last 6 months of 2010.
Gold - Unemployment peaked and has remained near that level.
Red - Unemployment continuously getting worse.
Dark Red - States that initially recovered, but unemployment has since gotten worse again.
Only two states, Georgia and Delaware, seem to show signs of a double-dip recession. As it stands, 26 states plus DC have shown continuous improvement since 2009. The Midwest is doing especially well, with unemployment rates falling much more rapidly in places like Illinois and Michigan than the national average. Michigan's unemployment rate was at 14%, but has fallen to 11%, lower than Nevada, California, Florida, and Rhode Island.
What's interesting with the dark green states in the Southeast is that they all show a similar pattern. They all peaked at around 11% unemployment, which quickly fell to about 10% and has stayed there ever since.
People have said that Colorado did well during the recession as when the nation as a whole was at 10%, Colorado was at 9%. However, the number show that while the nation is doing better, Colorado is still stuck at 9%.
The most worrisome sign is that three of the largest economies, California, Texas, and Florida, were worse off at the end of 2010 than they were in 2009. I'm also curious about Idaho and Montana given that all the surrounding states are doing fairly well.
I was looking at unemployment figures and seeing how different states were doing. I wasn't planning to do anything with it until I looked at Georgia's numbers. Like most states, Georgia's unemployment peaked around the end of 2009 and recovered slightly, but then started back up again at the end of 2010. It left me wondering if this was the sign of a double-dip recession, that we would see another peak in unemployment in the near future. So I made the following map:
Bright green - States that have shown continuous recovery since their peak in unemployment.
Dark green - States where unemployment is down from its peak, but there was little change in the last 6 months of 2010.
Gold - Unemployment peaked and has remained near that level.
Red - Unemployment continuously getting worse.
Dark Red - States that initially recovered, but unemployment has since gotten worse again.
Only two states, Georgia and Delaware, seem to show signs of a double-dip recession. As it stands, 26 states plus DC have shown continuous improvement since 2009. The Midwest is doing especially well, with unemployment rates falling much more rapidly in places like Illinois and Michigan than the national average. Michigan's unemployment rate was at 14%, but has fallen to 11%, lower than Nevada, California, Florida, and Rhode Island.
What's interesting with the dark green states in the Southeast is that they all show a similar pattern. They all peaked at around 11% unemployment, which quickly fell to about 10% and has stayed there ever since.
People have said that Colorado did well during the recession as when the nation as a whole was at 10%, Colorado was at 9%. However, the number show that while the nation is doing better, Colorado is still stuck at 9%.
The most worrisome sign is that three of the largest economies, California, Texas, and Florida, were worse off at the end of 2010 than they were in 2009. I'm also curious about Idaho and Montana given that all the surrounding states are doing fairly well.
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