Majority-Minority 2010

Last year I made a post about majority-minority states. These are states where non-Hispanic Whites are not the majority. Currently only four states, CA, HI, NM, and TX, plus DC are considered majority-minority. However, the population of certain minority groups, mainly Hispanics and Asians, is growing rapidly. I made some predictions about when other states would become majority-minority states, which showed that by 2041, non-Hispanic Whites will be a minority in the US. These predictions used data from 2005-2008, so with the recent Census data, I updated the data with 2009-2010 figures.

What the 2010 Census revealed was that previous population estimates greatly underestimated the size of the Hispanic population. The predicted date for when a state would become a majority-minority state moved forward in all but 10 states. Only in three states, AZ, ME, and, MT, did the estimated minority population decline as a result of the new data. On average, the predicted date for when a state would become a majority-minority state moved forward ten years.

Next 10 majority-minority states:
Nevada - 2015
Maryland - 2017
Florida - 2020
Georgia - 2021
Arizona - 2024
New Jersey - 2024
Mississippi - 2029
Louisiana* - 2030
Delaware - 2033
New York - 2034
*The Louisiana estimate leaves out 2005 as there was massive, but temporary, decline in the Black population that skews the data.

The new data moves forward the date for when non-Hispanic Whites become an minority in the US from 2041 to 2034. Previous data showed only 12 majority-states by 2041, but new data shows 14 by just 2034 and 20 by 2041.

Only DC is showing a reversal as the non-Hispanic White population is increasing and could become the majority by 2026. Previous data showed Hawaii reversing, but the 2010 Census data disputes this, showing the non-Hispanic White population declining as a proportion.