Sunday, October 30, 2011

Occupy "City"

I've been watching the Occupy Movement from a distance as it hasn't caught on in Estonia. News has slowly been trickling to me about protests spreading around the country, and not just major cities. With a list of the largest US cities, I did a Google search for "occupy 'city'" and found references to a protest in every city I looked up excluding those cities which are basically suburbs of larger cities.

In the midst of all this, I was reminded of a very strange theory I heard years ago known as the Strauss-Howe generational theory. What Strauss and Howe proposed was that throughout US history there is this pattern of generational cycles. Each cycle consists of four archetypal generations, prophets (idealistic, Baby Boomer hippies), nomads (alienated, Generation X), heroes (confident, WWII soldiers), artists (inclusive, Silent Generation). The prophet generation sets the tone of each cycle, and it's through their actions that a crisis eventually occurs, which the hero generation eventually resolves.

The whole idea seems like a lot of pseudoscience, but still intriguing enough to be considered. I don't remember how I first came across the theory, but it was at least a couple of years after 9/11. At the time, everyone saw this as a watershed moment, but after a couple years it became clear that 9/11 didn't really change anything, it just amplified tendencies that were already there. It was in this context that I first heard about the theory as the authors argued that the major crisis that would define the current hero generation had not yet occurred.

I thought about this theory off-and-on for years, largely thinking it would never amount to anything. Then there was the 2008 financial crisis, and it echoes of the Great Depression reminded me of the theory as Strauss and Howe argued that the crisis the previous hero generation initially faced was not WWII, but the Great Depression. Obama was elected president with massive support from the Millennial generation. It was a sign of something Strauss and Howe attributed to hero generations, they are politically engaged. However, things went quiet again. For the most part, Millennials were dissatisfied, but there was no signs of further actions. But now that the economy has stagnated, what could have been small, short-lived NYC protest, as turned into a national phenomenon. And now I'll left wondering, were Strauss and Howe right?

Unfortunately, Strauss died several years ago, but Howe is still around. He hasn't said anything about the protests yet, at least nothing I can find, but it would be interesting to hear his opinion.

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