Republican Flavor of the Month

Much has already been said about Republicans' brief love affairs with various candidates. First there was Romney, then anybody but Romney, which led to Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and now perhaps the greatest dark horse of all, Paul.

What gets me is the timeliness in the surge and sudden fall in support for each of the candidates in the polls.

Nationally, Romney led every national poll from the beginning of the year to August 9th.
Perry led from August 15th to September 25th.
Cain and Romney fought from September 25th to November 11th.
Gingrich has led since November 11th.

Broken down, that is 42 days for Perry, 48 days for Cain, and so far 39 days for Gingrich and things aren't looking good for him.

Iowa is even more interesting.
Similarly, Romney led early, but only until June 22nd.
Bachmann led from June 26th to August 4th.
Perry led from August 19th to August 31st.
There were no polls in September.
Cain led from October 7th to November 13th.
Gingrich led from November 15th to December 12th.
Paul has lead since December 18th.

That's 40 days for Bachmann, 13 days for Perry (followed by a 37 day gap in polling), 38 days for Cain, and 28 days for Gingrich.

The turnover rate for candidates appears to be just over 40 days nationally, while Iowa voters appear to be a bit more fickle. They managed to put Bachmann and Paul on top, which hasn't happened nationally, at least not yet. From December 18th to January 3rd, the date of the Iowa Caucus, is only 17 days. If the trend holds, this will be right around the apex of Paul's support.

What is interesting to note is that according the RCP average (the average of recent polls according to RealClearPolitics), Romney has stayed in first or second position nationally and only rarely fallen to third in Iowa. He often shows up as first in the polls during the transition from one fad candidate to the next. Relative to all the other candidates, his support has remained remarkably stable. This could be good or bad. He has been able to maintain steady support unlike other candidates, which will likely carry him through the primary. However, it appears he has very little soft support. Given how things have been going, it seems that Romney will second place his way to the Republican nomination.