Last week I put up a list of the drivers most likely to make the Chase. Well here's an update following the results at Fontana. I made a slight adjustment to the model, it only affected a few drivers, but it's why Newman's chances went up despite a poor finish this week and Kenseth's chances went down despite a decent finish.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 68%
Johnson - 64%
Gordon - 63%
Hamlin - 61%
Martin - 61%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Biffle - 55%
Kyle Busch - 54%
Newman - 54%
Edwards - 53%
Vickers - 53%
Kahne - 51%
Montoya - 50%
Bowyer - 48%
Reutimann - 47%
Kenseth - 45%
Burton - 43%
Logano - 43%
McMurray - 38%
Earnhardt Jr - 37%
Ambrose dropped out of the top 20, letting Earnhardt Jr gain a spot, just barely edging out Harvick. The biggest gainer was Mark Martin, increasing his chances by 5%. The biggest loser was Waltrip, dropping 8%. Of course, he didn't even race at Fontana as he's not running a few schedule this year.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
New Music for 2010
Thought I would share some music with you that I've discovered since returning from Germany. But first I want to say Lala is a great site that will let you preview a whole album, has cheap music downloads, and an impressive music library.
Lost in the Trees
A local NC band that I got to see perform in Asheville. Last month they performed with the orchestra at NCSSM.
The Heavy
You've probably heard this song before if you've been watching TV lately. It's being used in a Kia commercial. I first heard of them thanks to David Letterman. He liked them so much he had them play the song twice.
Adiam Dymott
You can never escape Swedish music.
Rain Machine
I was so happy the first time I heard this song. I thought it was a new TV on the Radio song, but it's actually for a side project one of the members.
Brandi Carlile
Paste Magazine said her last album was one of the best of 2009. I had never heard of her before, but I agreed with their assessment after hearing this song.
Edward Sharpe & the Magnetic Zeroes
First heard this song on WNCW and thought it was brilliant. I know how to play it, but I don't have anyone to sing it with.
Yeasayer
They've been playing this song a lot on the World Cafe. An appropriately odd video for an odd song.
Lost in the Trees
A local NC band that I got to see perform in Asheville. Last month they performed with the orchestra at NCSSM.
The Heavy
You've probably heard this song before if you've been watching TV lately. It's being used in a Kia commercial. I first heard of them thanks to David Letterman. He liked them so much he had them play the song twice.
Adiam Dymott
You can never escape Swedish music.
Rain Machine
I was so happy the first time I heard this song. I thought it was a new TV on the Radio song, but it's actually for a side project one of the members.
Brandi Carlile
Paste Magazine said her last album was one of the best of 2009. I had never heard of her before, but I agreed with their assessment after hearing this song.
Edward Sharpe & the Magnetic Zeroes
First heard this song on WNCW and thought it was brilliant. I know how to play it, but I don't have anyone to sing it with.
Yeasayer
They've been playing this song a lot on the World Cafe. An appropriately odd video for an odd song.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Chances in the Chase
Similar to what I did last year, I'm doing predictions on how NASCAR drivers will perform this year, only this time I'm starting before the Chase. I've set up a model for predicting who will make it into the Chase. The numbers I use are based on last years results, but I'll update them after each race this year.
Top 20 Drivers:
Stewart - 68%
Gordon - 65%
Hamlin - 63%
Johnson - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Kyle Busch - 57%
Martin - 56%
Edwards - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 51%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%
Logano - 41%
Burton - 40%
Ambrose - 38%
McMurray - 38%
McMurray just barely makes the top 20 cut-off despite winning the Daytona 500. In fact he's ranked only slightly higher than Casey Mears who didn't even run in the Daytona 500.
One oddity of the prediction model is that it assumes that all drivers will run a full season, so Bill Elliott has a 29% chance of making the Chase.
Top 20 Drivers:
Stewart - 68%
Gordon - 65%
Hamlin - 63%
Johnson - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Kyle Busch - 57%
Martin - 56%
Edwards - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 51%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%
Logano - 41%
Burton - 40%
Ambrose - 38%
McMurray - 38%
McMurray just barely makes the top 20 cut-off despite winning the Daytona 500. In fact he's ranked only slightly higher than Casey Mears who didn't even run in the Daytona 500.
One oddity of the prediction model is that it assumes that all drivers will run a full season, so Bill Elliott has a 29% chance of making the Chase.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Facebook Divisions
PeteSearch
This guy did an analysis of Facebook users and created a map based mostly on where users' friends lived. For example, in the Northeast users' friends tend to live in whatever cities are closest, whereas in the Southeast there are more connections to nearby large cities, like Atlanta. The West is probably the one that is most different as it seems they have friends all over the place.
This guy did an analysis of Facebook users and created a map based mostly on where users' friends lived. For example, in the Northeast users' friends tend to live in whatever cities are closest, whereas in the Southeast there are more connections to nearby large cities, like Atlanta. The West is probably the one that is most different as it seems they have friends all over the place.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Latvian ghost town sold
BBC News
Celeste shared an article about a ghost town in Latvia that was up for sell in Google Reader last night. Apparently she was a bit too late in telling me as it has already sold at auction for $3 million. I never even got a chance to bid. One thing that surprised me though, I figured they would only sell to someone who had an idea of what to do with the property, but the company that bought it did not say.
I tried looking up the company, Aleksejevskoje-Serviss, but the first 100 results are just re-postings of this article in various languages.
Celeste shared an article about a ghost town in Latvia that was up for sell in Google Reader last night. Apparently she was a bit too late in telling me as it has already sold at auction for $3 million. I never even got a chance to bid. One thing that surprised me though, I figured they would only sell to someone who had an idea of what to do with the property, but the company that bought it did not say.
I tried looking up the company, Aleksejevskoje-Serviss, but the first 100 results are just re-postings of this article in various languages.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Another reason to change copyright laws
BBC News
Men at Work have lost a plagiarism case over similarities between the flute solo in "Down Under" and the classic "Kookaburra". "Down Under" has been around for 27 years, and this case was not brought forward until last year. It's not like the song is obscure or that the similarities are vague, so why now?
The case can be made that copyrights exist so that people can continue to gain profit and recognition for their work, but at what point does one stop? "Kookaburra" was written in 1934 and the writer, Marion Sinclair, died in 1988. So she obviously no longer cares about profits and recognition. The case was brought forward by Larrikin Music who has owned the publishing rights to the song since 1990. So a company that neither created the song nor owned the song when "Down Under" was released is now enforcing the copyright after almost 20 years of neglect. They want 60% of the all the money "Down Under" has made, even from before 1990, when they didn't own the publishing rights.
The best part is that the tune for "Kookaburra" is based on a Welsh folk song.
Men at Work have lost a plagiarism case over similarities between the flute solo in "Down Under" and the classic "Kookaburra". "Down Under" has been around for 27 years, and this case was not brought forward until last year. It's not like the song is obscure or that the similarities are vague, so why now?
The case can be made that copyrights exist so that people can continue to gain profit and recognition for their work, but at what point does one stop? "Kookaburra" was written in 1934 and the writer, Marion Sinclair, died in 1988. So she obviously no longer cares about profits and recognition. The case was brought forward by Larrikin Music who has owned the publishing rights to the song since 1990. So a company that neither created the song nor owned the song when "Down Under" was released is now enforcing the copyright after almost 20 years of neglect. They want 60% of the all the money "Down Under" has made, even from before 1990, when they didn't own the publishing rights.
The best part is that the tune for "Kookaburra" is based on a Welsh folk song.
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