Last week I put up a list of the drivers most likely to make the Chase. Well here's an update following the results at Fontana. I made a slight adjustment to the model, it only affected a few drivers, but it's why Newman's chances went up despite a poor finish this week and Kenseth's chances went down despite a decent finish.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 68%
Johnson - 64%
Gordon - 63%
Hamlin - 61%
Martin - 61%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Biffle - 55%
Kyle Busch - 54%
Newman - 54%
Edwards - 53%
Vickers - 53%
Kahne - 51%
Montoya - 50%
Bowyer - 48%
Reutimann - 47%
Kenseth - 45%
Burton - 43%
Logano - 43%
McMurray - 38%
Earnhardt Jr - 37%
Ambrose dropped out of the top 20, letting Earnhardt Jr gain a spot, just barely edging out Harvick. The biggest gainer was Mark Martin, increasing his chances by 5%. The biggest loser was Waltrip, dropping 8%. Of course, he didn't even race at Fontana as he's not running a few schedule this year.
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