Similar to what I did last year, I'm doing predictions on how NASCAR drivers will perform this year, only this time I'm starting before the Chase. I've set up a model for predicting who will make it into the Chase. The numbers I use are based on last years results, but I'll update them after each race this year.
Top 20 Drivers:
Stewart - 68%
Gordon - 65%
Hamlin - 63%
Johnson - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Kyle Busch - 57%
Martin - 56%
Edwards - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 51%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%
Logano - 41%
Burton - 40%
Ambrose - 38%
McMurray - 38%
McMurray just barely makes the top 20 cut-off despite winning the Daytona 500. In fact he's ranked only slightly higher than Casey Mears who didn't even run in the Daytona 500.
One oddity of the prediction model is that it assumes that all drivers will run a full season, so Bill Elliott has a 29% chance of making the Chase.
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