Hanging Parliament

BBC

The BBC website has this neat little seat calculator that predicts which parties will win which seats in the coming election. While there are numerous fails with predicting elections this way, it's fun to play with. Also, it's a great example of how unrepresentative the British system and first-past-the-post voting are. When all parties are the same percentage of votes, the Lib-Dems' share of seats is much smaller than both Labour's and Conservatives' share. The following are some numbers I found interesting:

(Assuming 8% Other)
Fewest votes needed for majority:
Labour: 31%
Tories: 38%
Lib-Dems: 41%

Fewest votes needed to be largest party:
Labour: 25%
Tories: 31%
Lib-Dems: 38%

Labour has a huge advantage going into this election. There are a large number of Labour strongholds that the other parties have very little support in, so it takes an inordinately large swing to change Labour seats. Technically, with 8% going to "other", the largest party should be whichever one gets 31%. However, Labour can gain the most seats with far fewer votes while the Lib-Dems require much more.

This has become a major issue this election as Labour is polling behind the other main parties, but is likely to remain the largest party in Parliament, while a few polls have shown the Lib-Dems in the lead, but still receiving fewer seats than the other main parties. It is unlikely that any party will receive a majority this election, which in a way makes the Lib-Dems the most powerful party as they could potentially form a coalition with either the Tories or Labour. Whoever they end up working with, they will very likely force them to agree to electoral reform, as the current system hurts them the most.