I changed the model again, this time to one that's a bit less conservative in its predictions. Now it shows Johnson, Stewart, and Gordon as almost certain to make the Chase, which I think is a good guess.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
Johnson - 95%
Stewart - 94%
Gordon - 90%
Biffle - 68%
Kenseth - 68%
Hamlin - 66%
Edwards - 61%
Kurt Busch - 60%
Martin - 59%
Newman - 54%
Kyle Busch - 54%
Vickers - 48%
Bowyer - 48%
Montoya - 46%
Kahne - 43%
Reutimann - 32%
Burton - 30%
Harvick - 30%
Logano - 28%
Earnhardt - 25%
The biggest gainer this week was the winner of the race, Newman. He had fallen below the 50% mark, but is now back on top. The biggest loser was Kahne. An accident early in the race left him over 100 laps down, and he dropped below the 50% mark. One thing that the new model allows me to do is figure out how many drivers have any chance of making the Chase. At the beginning of the season, 36 drivers had at least a greater than 0% chance, it has now dropped to 32. The 32nd driver is Mears, with only a 0.04% chance.
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