NASCAR week 12

Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Gordon 100%
Johnson 98%
Hamlin 93%
Stewart 87%
Kyle Busch 84%
Kenseth 75%
Biffle 73%
Kurt Busch 72%
Edwards 64%
Martin 63%
Harvick 55%
Newman 53%
Montoya 42%
Burton 39%
Bowyer 39%
Kahne 35%
Reutimann 26%
Vickers 25%
Earnhardt 19%
Logano 17%

A late race speeding penalty put Johnson a lap down, so while he finished a respectable 16th, it is Gordon that breaks 100% this time. The biggest gainer was race winner Kyle Busch (74% to 84%). The biggest loser was Vickers who sat out this race due to a medical condition. This combined with a rather lackluster season has dropped his chances of making the Chase from 37% to 25%.

Almost halfway through the pre-Chase races, I've noticed that current points are starting to matter more than individual race results. Despite a 10th place finish, Logano saw his chances of making the Chase decline as he went into the race fairly low in the points. On the opposite end, Harvick is finally seeing his chances improve as he's been sitting in the top of the points most of the season and any poor results at this point probably won't greatly alter his chances.

At the moment only 27 drivers have any chance of making the Chase, with Sadler having a 0.2% chance.