Nationalist Ireland

World Elections

World Elections is one of my favorite websites. The writer does great analysis of recent elections and providing interesting information. The post I'm linking to is the results and his analysis of the recent UK election.

I had made an earlier post about the prospects of a hung parliament and the inconsistencies of "first-past-the-post" elections. This election certainly exhibited a number of the problems with FPTP. Despite gaining more votes, the LibDems lost five seats, while Plaid Cymru lost votes but gained a seat. However, an element I found intriguing that "World Elections" pointed out was that this was the first year that the majority of Northern Ireland's representatives weren't Unionist.

Politics in Northern Ireland are much different than in the rest of the UK, where parties are defined by their stance on Northern Ireland's status, so instead of a battle between Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal-Democrats, it's between Unionists and Nationalists. Northern Ireland has long been dominated by Unionists, but the last few years have garnered victories for Nationalists. Over the last few Westminster elections, there has been a steady trend:
2010 - 9 Unionists, 8 Nationalists, 1 Other (18 Seats)
2005 - 10 Unionists, 8 Nationalists (18 Seats)
2001 - 11 Unionists, 7 Nationalists (18 Seats)
1997 - 13 Unionists, 5 Nationalists (18 Seats)
1992 - 13 Unionists, 4 Nationalists (17 Seats)
1987 - 13 Unionists, 4 Nationalists (17 Seats)
1983 - 15 Unionists, 2 Nationalists (17 Seats)

For comparison, here is how people actually voted.
2010 - 44% Unionists, 42% Nationalists, 14% Other (18 Seats)
2005 - 51% Unionists, 42% Nationalists, 7% Other
2001 - 51% Unionists, 43% Nationalists, 6% Other
1997 - 49% Unionists, 40% Nationalists, 11% Other
1992 - 56% Unionists, 34% Nationalists, 10% Other
1987 - 54% Unionists, 35% Nationalists, 11% Other
1983 - 57% Unionists, 33% Nationalists, 10% Other

Despite a steady change in seats, there have only been two major shifts in voting patterns in the last 7 elections. There was a big shift from Unionists to Nationalists in 1997, and a big shift from Unionists to Other (namely, Alliance, a non-sectarian party) in 2010. Until 2001, FPTP had kept the Nationalist minority from gaining proper representation, leading to Unionist domination in politics. In such an environment, it is not all that surprising that many Nationalists turned to violence as they were shut-out of the political process. I find it somewhat fitting that now that the Nationalists have overcome the electoral obstacles placed against them, that Alliance, the main non-sectarian party, gains its first Westminster seat.