Friday, September 17, 2010

Green Politics' Day in the Sun

I was reading an article on TheLocal.de about a recent poll showing that Germans think that the CDU is too conservative. However, also mentioned in the article is that recent polls show the Greens with 18% of the vote. This isn't just a notable high, this massive. In the last election, the 2nd largest party, the SPD, only managed to get 23%. During the last election, the Greens were 5th with just under 11% (their best result ever), now they are 3rd, by a wide margin.

This reminded me of the upcoming election Sweden, with polls showing record support for the Green Party (Miljöpartiet). While they have fallen from their record 10% over the summer, they are still on track to become the 3rd largest party, up from 7th, as support for the other minor parties have waned in recent years.

This further reminded me of the recent election in Australia where the Green Party won its first seat in the House of Representatives and made large gains in the Senate.

It seems that Green Politics are starting to catch on. It appears to be connected to flagging support for traditional labor parties. While many green parties nominally maintain a centrist stance, their support largely comes from leftists. With 3 examples of green parties gaining support, I decided to see if the trend holds true for other countries. The table below shows support for the greens during a past election compared to support during the most recent election or a recent poll. I only included green parties that received more than 1% of the vote.









CountryPast ElectionRecent Election/Poll
Iceland14.3%21.7%
Germany10.7%18%
Denmark13%17.5%
Australia9%13.1%
Luxembourg11.6%11.7%
Latvia16.7%11.3%
Austria11.1%10.4%
Canada6.8%10%
Switzerland7.4%9.6%
Belgium9.1%9.2%
Finland8%8.5%
Sweden5.2%8%
HungaryN/A7.5%
EstoniaN/A7.1%
New Zealand5.1%6.7%
Netherlands4.6%6.7%
Brazil1.4%3.6%
VanuatuN/A3.4%
France4.5%3.3%
Andorra3.5%3.2%
ColombiaN/A3%
Greece1.1%2.5%
Czechia6.3%2.4%
Cyprus2%2%
Malta0.7%1.3%
Israel1.5%1.2%


Somes notes on the numbers above. The "green parties" in Denmark and Hungary are not traditional green parties, they are respectively socialist and liberal parties with strong environmental platforms. While the French green party lost support in the last parliamentary election, they did really well during the more recent European Election (16%). Unfortunately, I couldn't find any polls of current support. The Irish green party was left off the table because current polls are highly inconsistent, with support ranging from 2% to 6%. The numbers for Belgium and Israel are of its two green parties combined. For Estonia, Hungary, and Colombia, "N/A" means that the party had not run in a prior election and there are no available polls from after the most recent election. For Vanuatu, "N/A" it means the information isn't available, however, the green party lost a seat, so presumably their support was down.

It appears that green parties are largely gaining support. The only major exception is the green party of Czechia (I like this name better than Czech Republic, so I'm using it). I'm curious as to what happened there, but not really sure where I would find that information in English. One other thing of note, all the countries with a high-level support for Green parties are either in Northern Europe or are countries where the majority of the population are of Northern European ancestry.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hej Darrell,
Indeed the green party is becoming quite important here...btw. in Baden Württemberg it was at 27% in the last poll which is mainly due to their position against the new railway station that is to be built in Stuttgart (Stuttgart 21, have you heard of it already?)
Lisa

Mu Cow said...

I think you told me about Stuttgart 21 when I visited last year. I've seen it in the news a couple of times recently as well.