NASCAR week 3

So I decided to change my model again to make it more consistent. This change affected all the drivers, generally increasing the odds of drivers that previously had better than even odds of making the chase and decreasing the odds for everyone else. I think this one makes more sense as previously the model showed Casey Mears with a 30% chance of making the chase despite not being in a single race so far. Now he only has an 8% chance.

NASCAR week 3
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 66%
Hamlin - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Edwards - 56%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 50%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 46%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 33%
Keselowski - 33%
Burton - 32%
Harvick - 30%

Despite being the points leader, Harvick is still ranked really low due to his poor results from last year. Only 3 out of 26 races have been completed so far, meaning that 88% of his score is still based on last year's results. The biggest gainer this week was Kenseth, moving up 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was the aforementioned Mears.