That was a pretty brutal race today. Usually Martinsville is pretty predictable, but tire problems kept things interesting.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 72%
Biffle - 67%
Johnson - 67%
Kenseth - 63%
Gordon - 62%
Martin - 61%
Hamlin - 60%
Vickers - 59%
Newman - 57%
Kurt Busch - 57%
Edwards - 55%
Kahne - 50%
Montoya - 49%
Kyle Busch - 46%
Bowyer - 42%
Reutimann - 41%
Logano - 40%
Burton - 36%
Harvick - 35%
Ambrose - 35%
It seems like it was a good week for all the top drivers, however it's a bit misleading. As we get through more races, the gap between the top and bottom will begin to grow, so the top drivers' chances of making the Chase will go up even when they have a mediocre week. Also, there was a larger than normal rounding error this week, so everyone's score is inflated by about 1 percentage point. The biggest gainer this week was Vickers, jumping 7 percentage points. The biggest loser was Allmendinger, dropping 3 percentage points. He started out this year stronger than usual, but a poor result this week really hurt him.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Start and Park
Front Stretch
Found this article through a Something Awful thread about NASCAR. Start and Parkers are drivers that set-up their car for qualifying and once they qualify, they run a few laps and then park their car once they need fuel or new tires. I became aware of this practice when I became interested in Morgan Shepherd, as he was sponsored by Jesus and formerly Cheerwine. He didn't have the money to run a full race, so he would run what he could and then park.
The article touches on just how profitable this practice is and the declining incentives to run a full race when Start and Parkers are making just as much money and not having to spend it on a crew or extra fuel and tires.
While it does go against the competitive nature of the sport, unless a driver is capable of finishing in the top 10, they might as well not even bother as they're not going to get any attention anyway. In fact, there are so many Start and Parkers now, that it's basically become its own competition to see who can and can't qualify. For example, Morgan Shepherd eventually moved to Nationwide as he continuously failed to qualify for the Sprint Cup races.
One solution to this, if one even considers it a problem, would be to reduce the financial incentives. Simply reducing the payout for poor finishes though would equally hurt Start and Parkers and teams with few resources and would just lead to fewer cars in the race. A better method would be to increase the difference in pay based on final position to encourage drivers to stay on the track. As it stands now, there's little financial difference in finishing 43rd or 23rd. Another idea would be instead of giving the teams just cash, give them extra fuel and tires that they have to use at that race. This would be incredibly beneficial for teams that want to to run full races, but find themselves parking in order to save money. If the tires and fuel are already provided for them, they don't have to worry about it.
Found this article through a Something Awful thread about NASCAR. Start and Parkers are drivers that set-up their car for qualifying and once they qualify, they run a few laps and then park their car once they need fuel or new tires. I became aware of this practice when I became interested in Morgan Shepherd, as he was sponsored by Jesus and formerly Cheerwine. He didn't have the money to run a full race, so he would run what he could and then park.
The article touches on just how profitable this practice is and the declining incentives to run a full race when Start and Parkers are making just as much money and not having to spend it on a crew or extra fuel and tires.
While it does go against the competitive nature of the sport, unless a driver is capable of finishing in the top 10, they might as well not even bother as they're not going to get any attention anyway. In fact, there are so many Start and Parkers now, that it's basically become its own competition to see who can and can't qualify. For example, Morgan Shepherd eventually moved to Nationwide as he continuously failed to qualify for the Sprint Cup races.
One solution to this, if one even considers it a problem, would be to reduce the financial incentives. Simply reducing the payout for poor finishes though would equally hurt Start and Parkers and teams with few resources and would just lead to fewer cars in the race. A better method would be to increase the difference in pay based on final position to encourage drivers to stay on the track. As it stands now, there's little financial difference in finishing 43rd or 23rd. Another idea would be instead of giving the teams just cash, give them extra fuel and tires that they have to use at that race. This would be incredibly beneficial for teams that want to to run full races, but find themselves parking in order to save money. If the tires and fuel are already provided for them, they don't have to worry about it.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Majority-Minority
Similar to my interest in population decline, another demographic trend that fascinates me is the growing diversity of the US. So far four states (CA, HI, NM, and TX) and DC are what are called "majority-minority" states, wherein non-Hispanic whites make up less than 50% of the population. I keep hearing that more states will soon join them, but I never hear of estimates of how soon that could possibly be. So armed with Census population data from 2005 to 2008, I made rough estimates of which states will be next.
What I found somewhat surprised me. Although my estimates say that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority in the whole US by 2041, only eight more states will be considered majority-minority states by that time. So how could it happen that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority across the country, but still be majority in 38 states?
You may have noticed that the two most populous states, California and Texas, are already majority-minority. By 2041, less than a third of their populations will be white. Many of the other 10 are either already very large or very quickly growing, while many of the states that will retain a white majority are small or have slow or negative growth.
Majority-Minority States by 2041:
Nevada - 2016
Arizona - 2020
Georgia - 2021
Maryland - 2022
Florida - 2024
Mississippi - 2026
New Jersey - 2030
New York - 2038
Only one state, Hawaii, and DC are going against the trend. Hawaii currently has the lowest proportion of whites in the US at less than a quarter of the population. However, all of the reversal trend is related to a massive jump in the white population between 2005 and 2006, after which there are no farther increases. DC, on the other hand, is becoming whiter, and at a very rapid pace. The white population gains one percentage point every year. By 2025, DC should have a white majority.
Fastest changing states (percentage points annually):
Nevada - 0.9
Wyoming - 0.7
Arizona - 0.7
Utah - 0.6
Idaho - 0.6
Slowest changing states (percentage points annually):
South Carolina - 0.2
Rhode Island - 0.2
Michigan - 0.2
Ohio - 0.3
Minnesota - 0.3
For comparison, the US is changing at a rate of 0.5 percentage points annually. So as of 2008, 65.4% of Americans were white, but in 2009, 64.9% should have been white.
What I found somewhat surprised me. Although my estimates say that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority in the whole US by 2041, only eight more states will be considered majority-minority states by that time. So how could it happen that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority across the country, but still be majority in 38 states?
You may have noticed that the two most populous states, California and Texas, are already majority-minority. By 2041, less than a third of their populations will be white. Many of the other 10 are either already very large or very quickly growing, while many of the states that will retain a white majority are small or have slow or negative growth.
Majority-Minority States by 2041:
Nevada - 2016
Arizona - 2020
Georgia - 2021
Maryland - 2022
Florida - 2024
Mississippi - 2026
New Jersey - 2030
New York - 2038
Only one state, Hawaii, and DC are going against the trend. Hawaii currently has the lowest proportion of whites in the US at less than a quarter of the population. However, all of the reversal trend is related to a massive jump in the white population between 2005 and 2006, after which there are no farther increases. DC, on the other hand, is becoming whiter, and at a very rapid pace. The white population gains one percentage point every year. By 2025, DC should have a white majority.
Fastest changing states (percentage points annually):
Nevada - 0.9
Wyoming - 0.7
Arizona - 0.7
Utah - 0.6
Idaho - 0.6
Slowest changing states (percentage points annually):
South Carolina - 0.2
Rhode Island - 0.2
Michigan - 0.2
Ohio - 0.3
Minnesota - 0.3
For comparison, the US is changing at a rate of 0.5 percentage points annually. So as of 2008, 65.4% of Americans were white, but in 2009, 64.9% should have been white.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
NASCAR week 5
Finally got a statistical model that I've stuck with. The top twenty contenders haven't changed, but the order has changed a little.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 72%
Johnson - 67%
Biffle - 62%
Martin - 61%
Gordon - 61%
Hamlin - 59%
Kenseth - 59%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Newman - 53%
Vickers - 52%
Montoya - 51%
Edwards - 50%
Kahne - 48%
Kyle Busch - 44%
Bowyer - 41%
Reutimann - 40%
Logano - 36%
Harvick - 36%
Burton - 35%
Ambrose - 34%
The biggest gainer this week was Biffle. With a fourth place finish, his chances jumped 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was Sorenson, but given that he no longer races in the Sprint Cup, it's not really surprising. Of guys actually in the Sprint Cup, Kahne saw a loss of 4 percentage points and is now behind Edwards. Despite still being the points leader, Harvick's chances barely changed.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 72%
Johnson - 67%
Biffle - 62%
Martin - 61%
Gordon - 61%
Hamlin - 59%
Kenseth - 59%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Newman - 53%
Vickers - 52%
Montoya - 51%
Edwards - 50%
Kahne - 48%
Kyle Busch - 44%
Bowyer - 41%
Reutimann - 40%
Logano - 36%
Harvick - 36%
Burton - 35%
Ambrose - 34%
The biggest gainer this week was Biffle. With a fourth place finish, his chances jumped 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was Sorenson, but given that he no longer races in the Sprint Cup, it's not really surprising. Of guys actually in the Sprint Cup, Kahne saw a loss of 4 percentage points and is now behind Edwards. Despite still being the points leader, Harvick's chances barely changed.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
And They're Ready
Wikipedia
All entries for Eurovision 2010 are set with Ukraine making its final selection earlier today. Ukraine had actually held a final back on March 6th, but due to some controversy surrounding the selection, an emergency second final was held, wherein another candidate was selected. Ukraine technically broke Eurovision rules by holding the second final, but I think they'll be lenient since they managed to get it finished before the deadline.
Since the contest isn't until the end of May, I'm going to try to keep myself from listening to any of the entries before May to keep from spoiling it. I did listen to the Albanian entry already, but that was back in January and I've already forgotten it.
All entries for Eurovision 2010 are set with Ukraine making its final selection earlier today. Ukraine had actually held a final back on March 6th, but due to some controversy surrounding the selection, an emergency second final was held, wherein another candidate was selected. Ukraine technically broke Eurovision rules by holding the second final, but I think they'll be lenient since they managed to get it finished before the deadline.
Since the contest isn't until the end of May, I'm going to try to keep myself from listening to any of the entries before May to keep from spoiling it. I did listen to the Albanian entry already, but that was back in January and I've already forgotten it.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Uppsala Gets an Airport
The Local
An environmental review has determined that the military airport, Ärna, in Uppsala is suitable for commercial use. This means that low-cost carriers may begin offering flights from there. It would have been amazing if this airport had been open when I was there. It's less than 10 km from the dorm I stayed in. I could have biked to the airport.
The plan may not come to fruition as the Social Democrats and Greens, who are currently in opposition in the regional government, are saying they will reject the plans if they win this year's election. Uppsala is "conservative" (as much as any region in Sweden can be considered such), so it's unlikely they'll win, but they are polling well, so we'll see what happens.
An environmental review has determined that the military airport, Ärna, in Uppsala is suitable for commercial use. This means that low-cost carriers may begin offering flights from there. It would have been amazing if this airport had been open when I was there. It's less than 10 km from the dorm I stayed in. I could have biked to the airport.
The plan may not come to fruition as the Social Democrats and Greens, who are currently in opposition in the regional government, are saying they will reject the plans if they win this year's election. Uppsala is "conservative" (as much as any region in Sweden can be considered such), so it's unlikely they'll win, but they are polling well, so we'll see what happens.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
NASCAR Re-cap
Since there's no race this week, I decided to do an update on how much the drivers' chances have changed as a result of the last four races. I never posted what their chances were prior to the beginning of the season, so they didn't have to go through tons of changes to make them comparable as I've changed my model 5 times.
The top 12 originally were the guys that made it to the chance last year, unsurprisingly. After four races, Kenseth has moved into the top 12, replacing Edwards.
Stewart remains the guy most likely to make the chase, going from a 67% to 70% chance. He is currently 8th in points.
Martin has seen the biggest improvement in his chances, jumping 12 percentage points (53% to 65%). He had a poor start last year and was only 34th in points by this time last year, compared to 7th this year.
The biggest improvement for a guy that didn't make the chase last year is 5 points (48% to 53%) for Kenseth.
There are a number of drivers whose chances have dropped dramatically. However, most of them are people that raced near full schedules last year, but aren't racing this year for various reasons, such as Waltrip, Stremme, and Sorenson.
Of people actually trying to make Sprint Cup races, Mears has seen the biggest drop. He had a 28% chance at the start of the season, but due to moving to a new team, he has failed to qualify for a single race and his chances have dropped to 13%.
Among those that have made all four races, Robby Gordon chances have dropped the most, from 18% to 11%. Mears has a better chance of making the Chase.
The largest drop for someone that made the Chase last year was for Edwards, who has dropped 5 percentage points to the 13th position. He will likely drop farther as I've heard that he has be suspended for several weeks.
Despite being the current points leader, Harvick's chances have barely changed, going from 34% to 35%. The main reason for this is that he did really well early in the season last year (was 8th in points), but dropped off later on.
The top 12 originally were the guys that made it to the chance last year, unsurprisingly. After four races, Kenseth has moved into the top 12, replacing Edwards.
Stewart remains the guy most likely to make the chase, going from a 67% to 70% chance. He is currently 8th in points.
Martin has seen the biggest improvement in his chances, jumping 12 percentage points (53% to 65%). He had a poor start last year and was only 34th in points by this time last year, compared to 7th this year.
The biggest improvement for a guy that didn't make the chase last year is 5 points (48% to 53%) for Kenseth.
There are a number of drivers whose chances have dropped dramatically. However, most of them are people that raced near full schedules last year, but aren't racing this year for various reasons, such as Waltrip, Stremme, and Sorenson.
Of people actually trying to make Sprint Cup races, Mears has seen the biggest drop. He had a 28% chance at the start of the season, but due to moving to a new team, he has failed to qualify for a single race and his chances have dropped to 13%.
Among those that have made all four races, Robby Gordon chances have dropped the most, from 18% to 11%. Mears has a better chance of making the Chase.
The largest drop for someone that made the Chase last year was for Edwards, who has dropped 5 percentage points to the 13th position. He will likely drop farther as I've heard that he has be suspended for several weeks.
Despite being the current points leader, Harvick's chances have barely changed, going from 34% to 35%. The main reason for this is that he did really well early in the season last year (was 8th in points), but dropped off later on.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
NASCAR week 4
You'd think by now I'd be happy with the statistical model I'm using, but no, I decided to change it again. When I updated the numbers for this week, Kvapil's numbers shot up, giving him a 44% chance of making the chance because the only race I was basing his average on was the Bristol race where he did fairly well. So the model no longer assumes everyone is driving a full season.
(Update 3/9/10: fixed a mistake I made)
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 64%
Hamlin - 63%
Newman - 60%
Biffle - 59%
Montoya - 58%
Kenseth - 57%
Kurt Busch - 56%
Kahne - 55%
Vickers - 53%
Edwards - 52%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Bowyer - 45%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 40%
Ambrose - 37%
Burton - 39%
Harvick - 35%
The biggest loser is Keselowski because including all the races he didn't run in last year dropped him to 1%. The biggest gainer was Newman, going up 10 percentage points, as I finally fixed a problem I was having with his numbers.
(Update 3/9/10: fixed a mistake I made)
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 64%
Hamlin - 63%
Newman - 60%
Biffle - 59%
Montoya - 58%
Kenseth - 57%
Kurt Busch - 56%
Kahne - 55%
Vickers - 53%
Edwards - 52%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Bowyer - 45%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 40%
Ambrose - 37%
Burton - 39%
Harvick - 35%
The biggest loser is Keselowski because including all the races he didn't run in last year dropped him to 1%. The biggest gainer was Newman, going up 10 percentage points, as I finally fixed a problem I was having with his numbers.
Monday, March 01, 2010
NASCAR week 3
So I decided to change my model again to make it more consistent. This change affected all the drivers, generally increasing the odds of drivers that previously had better than even odds of making the chase and decreasing the odds for everyone else. I think this one makes more sense as previously the model showed Casey Mears with a 30% chance of making the chase despite not being in a single race so far. Now he only has an 8% chance.
NASCAR week 3
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 66%
Hamlin - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Edwards - 56%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 50%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 46%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 33%
Keselowski - 33%
Burton - 32%
Harvick - 30%
Despite being the points leader, Harvick is still ranked really low due to his poor results from last year. Only 3 out of 26 races have been completed so far, meaning that 88% of his score is still based on last year's results. The biggest gainer this week was Kenseth, moving up 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was the aforementioned Mears.
NASCAR week 3
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 66%
Hamlin - 63%
Biffle - 57%
Edwards - 56%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Kahne - 54%
Vickers - 54%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Kenseth - 51%
Montoya - 50%
Newman - 50%
Bowyer - 46%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 33%
Keselowski - 33%
Burton - 32%
Harvick - 30%
Despite being the points leader, Harvick is still ranked really low due to his poor results from last year. Only 3 out of 26 races have been completed so far, meaning that 88% of his score is still based on last year's results. The biggest gainer this week was Kenseth, moving up 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was the aforementioned Mears.
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