Finally got a statistical model that I've stuck with. The top twenty contenders haven't changed, but the order has changed a little.
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 72%
Johnson - 67%
Biffle - 62%
Martin - 61%
Gordon - 61%
Hamlin - 59%
Kenseth - 59%
Kurt Busch - 55%
Newman - 53%
Vickers - 52%
Montoya - 51%
Edwards - 50%
Kahne - 48%
Kyle Busch - 44%
Bowyer - 41%
Reutimann - 40%
Logano - 36%
Harvick - 36%
Burton - 35%
Ambrose - 34%
The biggest gainer this week was Biffle. With a fourth place finish, his chances jumped 6 percentage points. The biggest loser was Sorenson, but given that he no longer races in the Sprint Cup, it's not really surprising. Of guys actually in the Sprint Cup, Kahne saw a loss of 4 percentage points and is now behind Edwards. Despite still being the points leader, Harvick's chances barely changed.
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