Majority-Minority

Similar to my interest in population decline, another demographic trend that fascinates me is the growing diversity of the US. So far four states (CA, HI, NM, and TX) and DC are what are called "majority-minority" states, wherein non-Hispanic whites make up less than 50% of the population. I keep hearing that more states will soon join them, but I never hear of estimates of how soon that could possibly be. So armed with Census population data from 2005 to 2008, I made rough estimates of which states will be next.

What I found somewhat surprised me. Although my estimates say that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority in the whole US by 2041, only eight more states will be considered majority-minority states by that time. So how could it happen that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority across the country, but still be majority in 38 states?

You may have noticed that the two most populous states, California and Texas, are already majority-minority. By 2041, less than a third of their populations will be white. Many of the other 10 are either already very large or very quickly growing, while many of the states that will retain a white majority are small or have slow or negative growth.

Majority-Minority States by 2041:
Nevada - 2016
Arizona - 2020
Georgia - 2021
Maryland - 2022
Florida - 2024
Mississippi - 2026
New Jersey - 2030
New York - 2038

Only one state, Hawaii, and DC are going against the trend. Hawaii currently has the lowest proportion of whites in the US at less than a quarter of the population. However, all of the reversal trend is related to a massive jump in the white population between 2005 and 2006, after which there are no farther increases. DC, on the other hand, is becoming whiter, and at a very rapid pace. The white population gains one percentage point every year. By 2025, DC should have a white majority.

Fastest changing states (percentage points annually):
Nevada - 0.9
Wyoming - 0.7
Arizona - 0.7
Utah - 0.6
Idaho - 0.6

Slowest changing states (percentage points annually):
South Carolina - 0.2
Rhode Island - 0.2
Michigan - 0.2
Ohio - 0.3
Minnesota - 0.3

For comparison, the US is changing at a rate of 0.5 percentage points annually. So as of 2008, 65.4% of Americans were white, but in 2009, 64.9% should have been white.