Since there's no race this week, I decided to do an update on how much the drivers' chances have changed as a result of the last four races. I never posted what their chances were prior to the beginning of the season, so they didn't have to go through tons of changes to make them comparable as I've changed my model 5 times.
The top 12 originally were the guys that made it to the chance last year, unsurprisingly. After four races, Kenseth has moved into the top 12, replacing Edwards.
Stewart remains the guy most likely to make the chase, going from a 67% to 70% chance. He is currently 8th in points.
Martin has seen the biggest improvement in his chances, jumping 12 percentage points (53% to 65%). He had a poor start last year and was only 34th in points by this time last year, compared to 7th this year.
The biggest improvement for a guy that didn't make the chase last year is 5 points (48% to 53%) for Kenseth.
There are a number of drivers whose chances have dropped dramatically. However, most of them are people that raced near full schedules last year, but aren't racing this year for various reasons, such as Waltrip, Stremme, and Sorenson.
Of people actually trying to make Sprint Cup races, Mears has seen the biggest drop. He had a 28% chance at the start of the season, but due to moving to a new team, he has failed to qualify for a single race and his chances have dropped to 13%.
Among those that have made all four races, Robby Gordon chances have dropped the most, from 18% to 11%. Mears has a better chance of making the Chase.
The largest drop for someone that made the Chase last year was for Edwards, who has dropped 5 percentage points to the 13th position. He will likely drop farther as I've heard that he has be suspended for several weeks.
Despite being the current points leader, Harvick's chances have barely changed, going from 34% to 35%. The main reason for this is that he did really well early in the season last year (was 8th in points), but dropped off later on.
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