You'd think by now I'd be happy with the statistical model I'm using, but no, I decided to change it again. When I updated the numbers for this week, Kvapil's numbers shot up, giving him a 44% chance of making the chance because the only race I was basing his average on was the Bristol race where he did fairly well. So the model no longer assumes everyone is driving a full season.
(Update 3/9/10: fixed a mistake I made)
Top 20 Chase Contenders:
(red means they're down from last week, green means they're up)
Stewart - 73%
Johnson - 69%
Martin - 67%
Gordon - 64%
Hamlin - 63%
Newman - 60%
Biffle - 59%
Montoya - 58%
Kenseth - 57%
Kurt Busch - 56%
Kahne - 55%
Vickers - 53%
Edwards - 52%
Kyle Busch - 51%
Bowyer - 45%
Reutimann - 44%
Logano - 40%
Ambrose - 37%
Burton - 39%
Harvick - 35%
The biggest loser is Keselowski because including all the races he didn't run in last year dropped him to 1%. The biggest gainer was Newman, going up 10 percentage points, as I finally fixed a problem I was having with his numbers.
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